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Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB ) Para Politikası Kurulu (PPK), politika faizi olan bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oranının yüzde 17 düzeyinde sabit tutulmasına karar verdi.
İktisadi faaliyetin güçlü bir seyir izlediği belirtilen duyuruda, salgına bağlı kısıtlamaların ekonomi üzerindeki aşağı yönlü etkilerinin sınırlı kalırken, hizmetler ve bağlantılı sektörlerdeki yavaşlama ve bu sektörlerin kısa vadeli görünümüne dair belirsizliklerin sürdüğü ifade edildi.
Duyuruda, salgın döneminde sağlanan yüksek kredi büyümesinin birikimli etkileriyle güç kazanan iç talebin cari işlemler dengesi üzerindeki olumsuz etkisinin devam ettiği kaydedildi.
Diğer taraftan, finansal koşullardaki sıkılaşmayla birlikte son dönemde kredi büyümesinin yavaşlamaya başladığı belirtilen duyuruda, şu değerlendirmelere yer verildi:
"İç talep koşulları, döviz kuru başta olmak üzere birikimli maliyet etkileri, uluslararası gıda ve diğer emtia fiyatlarındaki yükseliş ve enflasyon beklentilerindeki yüksek seviyeler, fiyatlama davranışları ve enflasyon görünümünü olumsuz etkilemeye devam etmektedir. Gerçekleştirilen güçlü parasal sıkılaştırmanın krediler ve iç talep üzerindeki yavaşlatıcı etkilerinin daha belirgin hale gelmesi beklenmekte, böylelikle enflasyon üzerinde etkili olan talep ve maliyet unsurlarının kademeli olarak zayıflayacağı öngörülmektedir."
"GEREKMESİ DURUMUNDA İLAVE PARASAL SIKILAŞMA YAPILACAKTIR" Duyuruda, uluslararası emtia fiyatlarında süregelen artış eğilimi ve bazı sektörlerde belirginleşen arz kısıtları ile gerçekleştirilen ücret ve yönetilen fiyat ayarlamalarının, orta vadeli enflasyon görünümü üzerindeki önemini koruduğu belirtildi.
Bu doğrultuda, 2021 yıl sonu tahmin hedefi dikkate alınarak, enflasyonda kalıcı düşüşe ve fiyat istikrarına işaret eden güçlü göstergeler oluşana kadar, sıkı para politikası duruşunun kararlılıkla uzun bir müddet sürdürüleceği vurgulanan duyuruda, şunlar kaydedildi:
"Enflasyonda kalıcı düşüşe ve fiyat istikrarına işaret eden güçlü göstergeler kapsamında enflasyonun ana eğilimi ve fiyatlama davranışlarına ilişkin göstergeler, yayılım endeksleri, talep ve maliyet unsurları ve enflasyon beklentilerinin tahmin ufku içerisinde hedeflerle uyumu yakından izlenmektedir.
Gerekmesi durumunda ilave parasal sıkılaşma yapılacaktır. Kalıcı fiyat istikrarı ve yüzde 5 hedefine varıncaya kadar, para politikası faizi ile gerçekleşen/beklenen enflasyon arasındaki denge, güçlü dezenflasyonist etkiyi koruyacak şekilde kararlılıkla sürdürülecektir. Sıkı para politikası duruşunun bu şekilde sürdürülmesinin fiyat istikrarını kalıcı olarak tesis etmesinin yanında, ülke risk primlerinin düşmesi, ters para ikamesinin başlaması, döviz rezervlerinin artış eğilimine girmesi ve finansman maliyetlerinin kalıcı olarak gerilemesi yoluyla makroekonomik ve finansal istikrarı olumlu etkileyeceği değerlendirilmiştir."
Duyuruda, TCMB 'nin karar alma süreçlerinde orta vadeli bir perspektifle, enflasyonu etkileyen tüm unsurları ve bu unsurların etkileşimini temel alan bir analiz çerçevesi benimsediği belirtildi.
Açıklanacak her türlü yeni verinin ve haberin Kurulun geleceğe yönelik politika duruşunu değiştirmesine neden olabileceği önemle vurgulanan duyuruda, Para Politikası Kurulu toplantı özetinin beş iş günü içinde yayımlanacağı ifade edildi.
MERKEZ'İN KARARI SONRASI DOLAR NE KADAR OLDU? Dolar kuru, Merkez Bankası 'nın faiz kararı sonrası sınırlı tepki verdi. Sabah saatlerinde piyasa açılışı sırasında 6.99-7 lira bandında dalgalanan dolar/TL faiz kararı yaklaştıkça gevşedi. Faiz kararı öncesi 6.96 liraya kadar çekilen dolar kuru, karar sonrası 6.93 liraya kadar geriledi.
18 MART'TA Bir sonraki toplantı 18 Mart'ta gerçekleştirilecek.
İLK TOPLANTIDA YÜZDE 17'DE SABİT TUTULMUŞTU Yılın ilk toplantısında politika faizi yüzde 17'de sabit tutulmuştu.
TÜRK LİRASI 6 AYIN EN YÜKSEK SEVİYESİNDE Son toplantıdan bu yana Türk varlıklarında toparlanma ivmesinin de güçlendiği görüldü. Bir önceki toplantı tarihinde 7,40 seviyelerinde olan Dolar/TL kuru Şubat toplantısınını yapılacağı günün ilk işlemlerinde 6,97 seviyesini gördü.
Kurda bu süreçte 6,90 seviyesinin altı test edildi. Böylelikle bir önceki toplantıdan bu yana dolar/TL kurunda yüzde 5'in üzerinde düşüş kaydedildi.
Benzer eğilim Türkiye'nin risk priminde de görüldü. Ocak toplantısı döneminde 320 baz puan üzerinde olan risk primi 280 baz puan seviyelerini test etti.
Bunlara karşın tahvil faizlerinde küresel piyasalarda da öne çıktığı gibi bir yükseliş olduğu izlendi. Gösterge tahvil faizi bu süreçte yüzde 15 seviyesini test etti.
İLK SÖYLEŞİDE SIKILAŞMA MESAJLARI SÜRDÜ Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Başkanı Naci Ağbal , Reuters'a yaptığı açıklamada uzun süre faiz indirimini gündeme almalarının olası görünmediğine dikkat çekti.
Ağbal, "Orta vadeli enflasyon hedefimiz olan yüzde 5 oranının oldukça uzağındayız. Ocak Enflasyon Raporu'nda sunduğumuz tahminler bu hedefe 2023 yılında ulaşabileceğimizi göstermektedir.
Bu nedenle, para politikasındaki sıkı ve ihtiyatlı duruşun, yüzde 5 hedefine ulaşılması beklenen 2023 yılına kadar, uzun bir süre kararlılıkla sürdürülmesi gerekiyor." ifadelerini kullandı.
Ağbal söyleşide ilave sıkılaşma mesajı da verdi. Ağbal buna ilişkin olarak, "Enflasyon görünümünde ortaya çıkan geleceğe dönük yukarı yönlü riskleri dikkate alarak sıkı para politikası adımları atıyoruz. Bu çerçevede, 10,25 olan politika faiz oranını önce 15'e daha sonra 17'ye çıkardık. Enflasyon üzerinde ortaya çıkabilecek riskleri dikkate alarak gerekirse ilave sıkılaştırma yapabiliriz." ifadelerini kullandı.