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Moody's, Türkiye ekonomisi için Büyüme tahminlerini yukarı yönlü revize etti. Artan ihracat geliri, istihdamdaki olumlu seyri ve pandeminin etkilerinden güçlenerek çıkan Türkiye ekonomisi için Moody's, 2021 yılı için öngördüğü yüzde 6'lık büyüme tahmini ni yüzde 9'a çıkardı.
Moody's bugün yayınladığı "Global Makro Görünüm 2022-23" raporunda Türkiye ekonomisi için önemli açıklamalarda bulundu.
Kuruluş "Parasal genişleme ve kredi büyümesi ile bol likidite desteği Türkiye'nin toparlanmasını büyütmeye devam ediyor" değerlendirmesini yaparken büyümenin 2022 ve 2023 yıllarında da devam edeceğine değindi. Moody's, 2022 yılında yüzde 4.8, 2023 yılında ise yüzde 5'lik büyüme beklediğini açıkladı.
Moody's raporda küresel ekonominin bu yıl yüzde 5,8, 2022 yılında yüzde 4,4 ve 2023 yılında yüzde 3,2 büyüyeceği tahminine de yer verdi.
EBRD DE TAHMİNİNİ YÜKSELTTİ Avrupa İmar ve Kalkınma Bankası (EBRD ) Bölgesel Başekonomisti Roger Kelly, Türk ekonomisinin bu yılın sonunda yaklaşık yüzde 9 seviyesinde bir büyüme kaydetmesinin beklendiğini belirterek, 2022 yılında ekonomide salgın sonrası normale dönüşün yaşanmasının tahmin edildiğini kaydetti.
EBRD Bölgesel Ekonomik Görünüm Raporunu yayımladı. Raporda, EBRD'nin faaliyette olduğu tüm bölgelerde 2021 yıl sonu büyümesinin yüzde 5,5, 2022 yıl sonu büyümesinin ise yüzde 3,8 olması bekleniyor.
Raporda Türkiye 'nin 2021 yılı Büyüme Tahmini ise yüzde 5,5'ten yüzde 9,0'a yükseltildi. EBRD Bölgesel Başekonomisti Roger Kelly, Türkiye'nin ekonomik görünümüne ilişkin soruları yanıtladı.
Türkiye 'nin salgınının tüm dünyada ağır etkilerinin hissedildiği geçen yıl itibarıyla yüzde 1,8 büyüme kaydettiğini hatırlatan Kelly, "Türkiye bu şekilde geçen yıl pozitif büyüme kaydedebilen birkaç ekonomiden biri olmayı başardı. Ekonomik aktivitedeki güçlü artış bu yıl da devam etti." ifadelerini kullandı.
Kelly değerlendirmesine şöyle devam etti:
"Türkiye'nin bu yıl yüzde 9 civarında büyüyeceğini, gelecek yıl ise daha sürdürülebilir seviye olan 3,5'e geri döneceğini öngörüyoruz. Küresel ekonomi toparlanırken, salgın kısıtlamaları kaldırılırken, bu yıl ekonomik aktivitenin gücü hem iç hem de dış talepten kaynaklanıyor. Gelecek yıl için daha düşük olan büyüme tahmini miz ise salgın sonrası normale dönüş beklentimizi yansıtıyor."
"ULUSLARARASI ÜRETİM MERKEZİ OLMA POTANSİYELİ VAR" Son dönemde küresel tedarik zincirlerinde yaşanan sıkıntıların Türkiye 'ye bazı olumlu yansımaları olabileceğine işaret eden Roger Kelly, "Türkiye'nin salgın sonrası bağlamda bölgesel ve uluslararası bir üretim merkezi olma potansiyeline sahip olduğunu kesinlikle düşünüyorum." ifadesini kullandı.
Kelly, "Türkiye'nin esnek üretim üssü ve çekici stratejik konumu nedeniyle daha kısa tedarik zincirlerine yönelik trendden yararlanmak için çok iyi bir konuma sahip olduğunu düşünüyorum. Ancak bunu başarabilmek için doğru politikaların uygulandığından emin olunması gerekiyor." dedi.
Makroekonomik istikrarın sağlanması ve doğrudan yabancı yatırımların artışının sağlanması için daha öngörülebilir bir politika ortamının kilit önemde olduğunu belirten Kelly, "Olumlu tarafından bakarsak, yetkililer doğrudan yabancı yatırımlardaki düşüşe cevap verecek adımlar atıyor. Yakın zamanda doğrudan yabancı yatırımları artırmaya ve kaliteli doğrudan yabancı yatırımları çekmeyi amaçlayan 2021 ile 2021 yıllarını kapsayan yabancı yatırım stratejisini yayımladılar." ifadelerini kullandı.
"TCMB'NİN ENFLASYON TAHMİNİ GERÇEKÇİ" Enflasyonun Türkiye 'nin hassas noktası olduğunu belirten Başekonomist Kelly, "Biz resmi olarak enflasyon tahminleri yapmıyoruz. Ancak Merkez Bankası geçen günlerde, bu yıl için yıl sonu enflasyon tahminini yüzde 18,4'e yükselttiği son enflasyon raporunu yayınladı. Bu kısmen arz yönlü faktörlerle ilgili. Bana kalırsa, bu rakam oldukça gerçekçi görünüyor." değerlendirmesinde bulundu. Son dönemde Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası'ndan gelen faiz indirim kararlarını da yorumlayan Kelly, "Gelen mesaj, merkez bankası cari hesap açığını azaltmaya çalışırken, sırada daha fazla faiz indirimi olduğunu gösteriyor gibi görünüyor. Bu, son haftalarda aldığımız yeni bir mesaj." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Başekonomist Kelly, ilerleyen dönemde daha fazla parasal gevşeme adımlarının atılması durumunda, 2022 yıl sonunda enflasyonun merkez bankasının tahmininin biraz daha üzerinde gerçekleşebileceğini söyledi.
"PARİS ANLAŞMASI'NIN KABULÜ TÜRKİYE'NİN KONUMU İÇİN FAYDALI" Türkiye 'nin Paris İklim Anlaşması'nı onaylamasın son derece olumlu bir adım olduğuna işaret eden Roger Kelly, "Kesinlikle daha yeşil bir yaklaşımı benimsemenin sadece gezegen için değil, aynı zamanda Türkiye'nin uluslararası ve Avrupa pazarlarındaki konumu için de faydalı olduğunu düşünüyorum." dedi.
Kelly, "Türkiye'nin yabancı sermayeye bağımlılığı, iklim değişikliği ve sürdürülebilirlik konusunda daha proaktif bir yaklaşım benimsemenin finansman çekmeye devam etmesine yardımcı olacağı anlamına geliyor." ifadesini kullandı.
TÜRKİYE'NİN ÖNÜNDEKİ FIRSAT VE RİSKLER Türkiye'nin gelecek dönemde tedarik zincirlerindeki sorunları avantaja çevirebileceğine işaret eden EBRD Bölgesel Başekonomisti Kelly, "Türkiye, kısa tedarik zincirlerine yönelik eğilimden yararlanmak için iyi bir konumda. Türk makamları, firmaların yalnızca değer zincirlerine katılımlarını artırmakla kalmayıp aynı zamanda daha fazla katma değerli ürün üretmelerini, Türkiye'nin yapısal cari açığının kapatılmasına yardımcı olmalarını sağlamak için uyguladığı politikaları giderek artırmaktadır." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
"Ayrıca turizmin yeniden canlandığını gördük. Bu, bu yılki toparlanmayı desteklemeye yardımcı oldu. Yani (önümüzdeki döneme ilişkin) pozitif olmak için pek çok neden var. Son dönemde küresel bazda salgın vakalarındaki artış iç ve dış talebi etkileyebilir, yükselen Emtia fiyatları Türkiye'de enflasyon ve büyüme üzerinde baskı oluşturabilir" diyen Kelly sözlerini şöyle tamamladı:
"Küresel enflasyon, birçok gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ekonomide, Türkiye 'ye sermaye akımlarını etkileyebilecek sıkılaştırıcı politikaları geri getiriyor. Şimdi, Türkiye bu risklerin bazılarını etki edecek pek fazla bir şey yapamıyor olabilir ancak bunlara (gelişmelere) uygun bir şekilde yanıt verebilir. Bu da politikanın Ortodoks ve şeffaf bir şekilde yürütülmesini sağlamak anlamına gelir."