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Para Politikası Kurulu (Kurul) politika faizi olan bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oranının yüzde 45 düzeyinde sabit tutulmasına karar verdi. TCMB, bu kararla 8 ay aradan sonra politika faizini artırmamış oldu.
Kurul, karara ilişkin yayımlanan raporda şu ifadelere yer verdi:
Ocak ayında aylık enflasyonun ana eğilimi yılın ilk ayına özgü zamana-bağlı fiyat ve ücret güncellemeleri sonucunda, enflasyon tahmin patikasında öngörülen şekilde yükselmiş ve manşet enflasyon sınırlı bir artış kaydetmiştir. Yakın döneme ilişkin göstergeler, yurt içi talepteki dengelenmenin sürdüğüne işaret etmektedir.
Söz konusu dengelenme süreci, tüketim malı ve altın ithalatında güçlü, diğer tüketim harcamalarına ilişkin göstergelerde ise öngörülene kıyasla yavaş seyretmektedir.
Buna ek olarak, hizmet fiyatlarındaki katılık, jeopolitik riskler ve gıda fiyatları enflasyon baskılarını canlı tutmaktadır. Kurul, enflasyon beklentileri ve fiyatlama davranışlarının öngörüler ile uyumunu ve ücret artışlarının enflasyon üzerindeki etkilerini yakından takip edecektir.
Dış finansman koşulları, rezervlerin seviyesi, cari dengedeki iyileşme ve Türk lirası varlıklara talep, döviz kuru istikrarına ve para politikasının etkinliğine katkıda bulunmaya devam etmektedir. Para politikasındaki kararlı duruş, dezenflasyonun ana unsurlarından olan Türk lirası reel değerlenme sürecine katkı vermeyi sürdürecektir.
Kurul, politika faizinin mevcut seviyesinin aylık enflasyonun ana eğiliminde belirgin ve kalıcı bir düşüş sağlanana ve enflasyon beklentileri öngörülen tahmin aralığına yakınsayana kadar sürdürüleceğini değerlendirmiştir. Enflasyon görünümünde belirgin ve kalıcı bir bozulma öngörülmesi durumunda ise para politikası duruşu sıkılaştırılacaktır.
Kurul, makroihtiyati politikaları piyasa mekanizmasının işlevselliğini ve makro finansal istikrarı koruyacak nitelikte uygulamayı sürdürecektir. Bu çerçevede, kredi büyümesi ve mevduat faizinde öngörülenin dışında gelişmeler olması durumunda parasal aktarım mekanizması desteklenecektir. Parasal sıkılığı desteklemek amacıyla likidite gelişmeleri yakından takip edilerek, sterilizasyon araçları etkin şekilde kullanılacaktır.
Kurul, politika kararlarını parasal sıkılaştırmanın gecikmeli etkilerini de dikkate alarak, enflasyonun ana eğilimini geriletecek ve orta vadede yüzde 5 hedefine ulaştıracak parasal ve finansal koşulları sağlayacak şekilde belirleyecektir.
Enflasyon ve enflasyonun ana eğilimine ilişkin göstergeler yakından takip edilecek ve Kurul, fiyat istikrarı temel amacı doğrultusunda elindeki tüm araçları kararlılıkla kullanacaktır.
Kurul, kararlarını öngörülebilir, veri odaklı ve şeffaf bir çerçevede alacaktır.
Para Politikası Kurulu Toplantı Özeti beş iş günü içinde yayımlanacaktır.
UZMAN İSİMLER YORUMLADI A Para Yayın Koordinatörü Özlem Doğaner ve Ahlatçı Yatırım Araştırma Müdürü Barış Ürkün, A Haber canlı yayınında konuya ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulundu.
Faiz kararını A Haber'de yorumlayan Ahlatçı Yatırım Araştırma Müdürü Barış Ürkün, "Bir önceki metin ile arasında bir fark var. Gerekli takdirde faiz artırımı yapılabileceğine yönelik belirgin ifadeler yer buluyor. Şahin ton biraz daha baskın. Bir diğer izlenimim önceki metinde enflasyon görünümü üzerinde belirgin ve kalıcı izler oluşması durumunda gerekli parasal sıkılık gözden geçirilecek denmişti. O ifade biraz daha belirginleşmiş. Para politikası duruşu sıkılaştırılacaktır ifadesi kullanılmış bu sefer. Ben bu toplantı metninde yüksek faiz ortamının daha uzun süre devam edeceğini, gerekli taktirde faiz artırımı hamlesine girişileceği şeklinde yorumladım. " dedi.
Ciddi manada çalışmalar yürütüldüğüne de dikkat çeken Ürkün, "Bunları öngörülebilirliği artırmak adına ciddi bir şekilde ortaya koyuyorlar. Bugünkü metin bu anlamda çok önemliydi " ifadelerini kullandı.
"KADEMELİ OLARAK HİSSEDİLECEK" A Para Yayın Koordinatörü Özlem Doğaner ise "Satın alma gücü arttıkça aslında fiyatların artış hızı yavaşlayacak. Önemli olan o noktaya getirmek. Önemli olan enflasyonu daha az hissetmek. Hemen enflasyon Haziran'dan sonra bıçak gibi kesilmeyecek. Kademeli olarak hissedilecek. Mayıs ayında en yüksek noktayı görecek. Baz etkileri buna göre hesaplanıyor. Bizim oradan sonrasını hesaplamamız gerekiyor" dedi.
"AŞAĞI YÖNLÜ BİR ENFLASYON GÖRECEĞİZ" A Para ekranlarında da Merkez Bankası 'nın faiz kararı Ahlatçı Yatırım Genel Müdür Yardımcısı Tonguç Erbaş, tarafından değerlendirildi.
Ahlatçı Yatırım Genel Müdür Yardımcısı Tonguç Erbaş, " Yaz aylarında aşağı yönlü bir enflasyon süreci göreceğiz ama kalıcı olarak enflasyonun aşağı doğru devam edeceği o patikada herhalde Mart, Nisan ve Mayıs aylarında ön plana çıkacaktır. Metne sadık kalarak detaylandırma piyasaya verilmiş. Bu detaylandırmanın piyasa tarafından anlaşılması isteniyor. Bir iki üç aylık periyod içerisinde çok bir sapma olmazsa sabit kalacaktır." şeklinde konuştu.
İLK TOPLANTISINDA KARAR NE OLMUŞTU? TCMB, 25 Ocak'ta gerçekleştirilen 2024 yılının ilk toplantısında politika faizini 250 baz puan artırarak yüzde 45'e çıkarmıştı.
Yılın ilk toplantısında, "Kurul, parasal sıkılaştırmanın gecikmeli etkilerini de göz önünde bulundurarak, dezenflasyonun tesisi için gerekli parasal sıkılık düzeyine ulaşıldığını ve bu düzeyin gerektiği müddetçe sürdürüleceğini değerlendirmiştir" mesajı verilmişti.
Merkez Bankası , yıl sonu enflasyon hedefini yüzde 36 olarak açıklamıştı.
EKONOMİSTLER NE TAHMİN ETMİŞTİ? Merkez Bankası , reel ve finansal sektör temsilcileri ile profesyonellerden oluşan 68 katılımcıyla gerçekleştirdiği şubat ayı Piyasa Katılımcıları Anketi'ni yayımladı.
AA Finans'ın beklenti anketine katılan ekonomistlerin tümü, merkez bankasının politika faizini sabit bırakmasını beklerken, ekonomistlerin yıl sonu politika faizi beklentilerinin medyanı ise yüzde 36,25 oldu.
TCMB'nin düzenlediği ankete göre önümüzdeki 12 ay için enflasyon beklentisi yüzde 37,78 oldu. Bir önceki ankette bu beklenti yüzde 39,09 seviyesindeydi. 24 ay sonrası için yüzde 23,69'dan yüzde 23,05'e geriledi.
Katılımcıların cari yıl sonu tüketici enflasyonu (TÜFE) beklentisi bir önceki anket döneminde yüzde 42,04 iken, bu anket döneminde yüzde 42,96 oldu. 24 ay sonrası TÜFE beklentisi ise aynı anket dönemlerinde sırasıyla yüzde 23,69 ve yüzde 23,05 olarak gerçekleşti.
2024 PPK TOPLANTI TAKVİMİ
22 Şubat 2024
21 Mart 2024
25 Nisan 2024
23 Mayıs 2024
27 Haziran 2024
25 Temmuz 2024
22 Ağustos 2024
19 Eylül 2024
17 Ekim 2024
21 Kasım 2024
26 Aralık 2024
MERKEZ BANKASI'NDA FATİH KARAHAN DÖNEMİ
Geçtiğimiz ay, Merkez Bankası 'nın başına Hafize Gaye Erkan'ın yerine Fatih Karahan atanmıştı. Karahan, yılın ilk enflasyon raporunu açıklamış ve "Enflasyonda 2024, ve 2025 tahminleri değişmedi. 2024 enflasyon tahmini yüzde 36, 2025 tahmini yüzde 14 olarak korundu. Enflasyonun 2026 yılını tek haneli seviyelere gerileyerek yüzde 9 ile tamamlaması, orta vadede ise yüzde 5 hedefinde istikrar kazanması öngörülüyor." ifadelerini kullanmıştı.