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Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası 'nın (TCMB) 21 Mart'taki faiz artırımı ve 29 Mart yerel seçimlerinin ardından, enflasyonla mücadele ile programın kararlılıkla uygulanacağı yönündeki mesajlar, yabancıların Türk varlıklarına ilgisini artırdı.
Dünya devi yatırım ve finans kurumları art arda yayınladıkları raporlarda önümüzdeki dönemde TL'de değer kazanımlarının hızlanacağına işaret ederken, TCMB'nin son açıkladığı veriler de yabancı girişinin hızlandığını ortaya koydu.
4 HAFTA KESİNTİSİZ ALIM Merkez Bankası'nın açıkladığı verilere göre yabancı yatırımcı lar 15 Mart-9 Nisan 2024 tarihleri arasındaki 4 haftada, Borsa İstanbul 'da kesintisiz net alım gerçekleştirdi. Yabancıların 4 haftadaki net alım tutarı 1.2 milyar dolar oldu. Yabancılar bu dönemde, ters repo ve teminatlara verilenler de dahil olmak üzere 190 milyon dolarlık tahvil-bono alımı yaptı. Böylelikle hisse senedi ile tahvil-bono piyasasına 4 haftadaki net giriş 1 milyar 408 milyon dolara ulaştı.
Bu dönemde swap kanalıyla giriş ise 3.5 milyara dolar oldu. Yabancı yatırımcı lar, hisse senedi ile tahvil-bononun yanı sıra, swap tarafında da TL lehine pozisyon almaya başladı. Yabancıların TL swap pozisyonu seçim sonrası yedi iş gününde 3.5 milyar dolar artarak 1.8 milyar dolara çıktı. Böylelikle Şubat 2022'den bu yana ilk kez yabancılar swap piyasasında TL lehine döndü. 2021 Şubat ayında yabancı yatırımcıların swap piyasasında TL lehine pozisyonu 24.3 milyar doları görmüştü. Sonrasında bu pozisyonlanmada aşağı yönlü bir ivme dikkat çekmişti. Bu ivmenin sonucunda Şubat ayında yabancının swap piyasasında pozisyonu TL aleyhine dönmüştü. 2022 Aralık ayına gelindiğinse ise bu pozisyon eksi 18.6 milyar dolar ile dip seviyeyi görmüştü.
BORSA İSTANBUL CAZİP Borsa İstanbul 'da endeksin ilk hedefinin 10 bin puanı aşmak olduğuna dikkat çeken analistler, hisse fiyatlarının gelişmekte olan ülkelere göre cazip seviyelerde bulunduğunu vurguladı.
Borsa İstanbul 'daki şirketlerin hisse fiyatlarının toplam kârlarına oranını gösteren Fiyat/Kazanç (F/K) oranı gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında en düşük seviyelerde bulunuyor Gelişmekte olan ülkeler içinde en düşük F/K oranı 3.20 ile Pakistan Borsası'na ait. İkinci sırada 4.90 F/K oranı ile Borsa İstanbul'da. Gelişen ülke borsalarının ortalaması ise 12.20 olarak dikkat çekiyor. Borsa İstanbul, kendi liginde borsalara göre yüzde 60'a yakın iskonto barındırıyor.
REZERVLER GÜÇLENİYOR Yabancı yatırımcı ların Türk varlıklarına artan ilgisi ile TL'de değerlenmenin kapısını açarken, bu durum Merkez Bankası'nın rezervlerine de yansımaya başladı. Merkez Bankası'nın 29 Mart'ta 123 milyar 126 milyon dolar olan döviz rezervleri, 9 Nisan itibarıyla 128 milyar 446 milyon dolara çıktı. Rezervlerde iki haftalık artış 5 milyar 320 milyon dolar oldu. Bu dönemde döviz tevdiat hesapları da 5 milyar 356 milyon dolar azaldı.
YABANCILAR ROTAYI ÇEVİRDİ Sabah'ta yer alan habere göre, dünya devi finans kurumları, yerel seçimlerin ardından yayımladıkları raporlarda TL'nin önümüzdeki dönemde güçleneceğine işaret etmişti. ABD merkezli Wells Fargo, dolar kurunun 2025 yılında 30 liranın altına ineceği görüşünü tekrarladı. Deutsche Bank, seçimlerin ardından Türk varlıklarının performans göstermesi için daha fazla alan gördüğünü belirtti.
Goldman Sachs ekonomistleri de seçimin geride kalmasıyla artan sermaye akımlarıyla Türk lirasının geçtiğimiz aylara kıyasla daha iyi performans sergileyeceğine işaret etti. Dünyanın ikinci büyük varlık yönetim şirketi Vanguard yetkileri de TL'nin reel bazda değer kazanacağını açıklamıştı.
KARAHAN DÜNYA BANKASI VE IFC YETKİLİLERİYLE GÖRÜŞTÜ Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Başkanı Fatih Karahan, Washington'da Dünya Bankası ve Uluslararası Finans Kurumu (IFC) yetkilileriyle bir araya geldi. Dünya Bankası Türkiye Ülke Direktörü Humberto Lopez, Dünya Bankasının Avrupa ve Orta Asya bölgesinden sorumlu Başkan Yardımcısı Anna Bjerde ile IFC Türkiye ve Orta Asya Bölge Direktörü Wiebke Schloemer'in katıldığı görüşmede TCMB Başkanı Karahan'a, TCMB Başkan Yardımcısı Prof. Dr. Hatice Karahan eşlik etti.