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Amerika Birleşik Devletleri'nde yapılan başkanlık seçimlerinin sonuçları yatırımcılar tarafından ilgiyle takip edildi.
DONALD TRUMP ZAFER İLAN ETTİ REKOR GELDİ Trump'ın başkanlık seçiminde zaferini ilan etmesiyle, ABD tahvil getirileri ve dolar yükselirken, Bitcoin'in fiyatı da 75 bin doları aşarak rekor tazeledi.
Cumhuriyetçi aday Donald Trump 'ın destekçilerine yaptığı konuşmada zaferini ilan etmesinin ardından dünyanın en büyük ekonomisindeki seçim sonuçları küresel çapta varlıkları etkilemeye devam ediyor.
ABD başkanlık yarışında Donald Trump seçimi önde götürüyor
ABD'de 10 yıl vadeli hazine tahvili faizi 18 baz puan artışla yüzde 4,47'e yükselerek son 4 ayın en yüksek seviyesine ulaştı. 2 yıl vadeli hazine tahvili de yüzde 4,31'e çıktı.
Analistler, Trump'ın göçü kısıtlama, vergileri ve gümrük tarifelerini düşürme planlarının yatırımcılar tarafından tahviller için olumsuz olarak görüldüğünü belirtti.
DOLAR/AVRO PARİTESİ DÜŞTÜ Dolar endeksi de yüzde 1,5 artarak 104,97 ulaştı. Dolar endeksinin 2023 başından beri en büyük günlük yükselişini gerçekleştirmesi dikkati çekti.
Avro/dolar paritesi ise yüzde 1,7 düşüşle 1,0744'e geriledi.
Avro Bölgesi'nde hazine tahvili getirileri keskin bir düşüş yaşarken, 2 yıllık Alman tahvil getirileri 10 baz puan düşüşle yüzde 2,19'a geriledi.
Coinmarketcap verilerine göre, kripto para birimi Bitcoin'in fiyatı, 75 bin 297 dolarla rekor tazelerken, Türkiye saati ile 11.52 itibarıyla 73 bin 371 dolardan işlem gördü.
ABD seçimleri sürerken piyasalar hareketlendi (Takvim.com.tr Fotoğraf Arşivi)
Altın ın ons fiyatı, yüzde 0,4 azalışla 2 bin 732 dolara geriledi.
ABD başkanlık seçimlerinin ardından güçlenen dolar, petrol ve bakır fiyatları üzerinde de etkili oluyor.
Brent petrolün varil fiyatı yüzde 2,5 düşüşle 73,64 dolara ve Batı Teksas türü (WTI) ham petrolün varili de yüzde 2,4 azalışla 70,23 dolar oldu.
Bakır fiyatı da yüzde 2,1'e varan düşüşle ton başına 9 bin 537 dolar a geriledi.
Analistler, daha güçlü doların, dolar cinsinden işlem gören emtiayı diğer para birimi sahipleri için daha pahalı hale getirdiğini ve bunun da talebin azalmasına yol açtığını kaydetti.
Trump kazandı Tesla hisseleri fırladı (Trump ve Elon Musk Takvim.com.tr Fotoğraf Arşivi)
TESLA HİSSELERİ FIRLADI Donald Trump 'ın ABD başkanlık seçiminde zaferini ilan etmesi, Tesla'nın Frankfurt'ta işlem gören hisselerinin erken işlemlerde yüzde 14'ten fazla yükselmesine neden oldu. Tesla'nın ana hissedarı Elon Musk, seçim kampanyası boyunca Trump'ı desteklemişti.
Öte yandan, Türk lirasının, Trump'ın zaferini ilan etmesinin ardından gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında dolar karşısında değer kazanan tek para birimi olması da dikkati çekti.
PİYASALARDA SON DURUM Peki piyasalarda son durum ne? Kriptoların rekora koştuğu yerde altın dolar ve euro sakin ve düşüş eğiliminde seyrediyor.
Takvim Gazetesi Ekonomi Müdürü Faruk Erdem piyasaların hareketini değerlendirdi.
Takvim Gazetesi Ekonomi Müdürü Faruk Erdem A Haber ekranlarında ABD seçimlerinin ekonomiye olası etkilerini değerlendirdi (Ekran Görüntüsü)
EURO KARŞISINDA DOLARI BESLEYECEK Erdem şunları söyledi:
"Şimdi Trump'ınn önceki dönemini biliyoruz ama şahsına baktığın zaman öngörülemez bir adam ne yapacağı belli değil. Harris kazansaydı Biden dönemi devam edecekti. Bir şey öngörebilirsin ekonomide ama Trump'ta ön göremiyorsun ancak açıklamaları var; Korumacılık öne çıkacak. Ticaret savaşları öne çıkacak. Öyle gözüküyor ki vergi indirimleriyle enflasyonu artıracak. Bütün bunlar aslında Euro karşısında doları besleyen unsurlar haline geliyor.
"VERGİ İNDİRİMLERİYLE ABD'DE ENFLASYON AZABİLİR" Bir faiz indirimi meselesi başlamıştı ABD'de vergi indirimleriyle enflasyonları azdırırsa faiz indirimlerinin duracağı ön görülüyor. Güçlü bir dolar önümüzde duruyor. Mart 2020'den bu yana en hızlı günlük yükselişini yaşamış. Doların güçlenmesi bizi olumsuz etkileyecektir. Euro 'nun zayıflaması bizim ticari partnerimiz olarak Avrupa bölgesinde sıkıntıya yol açabilir.
Euro karşısında dolar ın güçleneceği çok önceden de biliniyordu. Artık bu politikayı uygulayacak gümrük vergilerini artıracak ticaret savaşlarını körükleyecek öyle bir yapısı var zaten bunu da gizlemiyor. İçeride vergi indirimleriyle enflasyonu körükleyeceği için de içerideki faiz indirimi öngörüsüyle altın geriliyor. Tahviller yükseliyor..."
ALTIN Dün yüzde 0,2 değer kazanarak 2 bin 743,2 dolardan kapanan altının ons fiyatı yeni güne önceki kapanışın yüzde 0,2 altında 2 bin 737 dolardan işlem görüyor.
DOLAR Dolar/TL, dün yüzde 0,1 düşüşle 34,3085'ten kapanırken, bugün bankalararası piyasada önceki kapanışın yüzde 0,1 üzerinde 34,3280'den işlem görüyor.
EURO
BRENT PETROL DÜŞTÜ Brent petrolün varil fiyatı ise dün yüzde 0,4 yükselerek 75,5 dolardan kapanırken, yeni işlem gününde yüzde 1,1 azalışla 74,6 dolardan işlem görüyor.
BORSA YÜKSELİŞLE BAŞLADI Borsa İstanbul'da BIST 100 endeksi, güne yüzde 0,34 yükselişle 8.647,94 puandan başladı.
Açılışta BIST 100 endeksi, önceki kapanışa göre 29,37 puan ve yüzde 0,34 yükselişle 8.647,94 puana çıktı.
Bankacılık endeksi yüzde 0,35, holding endeksi yüzde 0,40 değer kazandı.
Sektör endeksleri arasında en çok kazandıran yüzde 1,06 ile inşaat, en çok kaybettiren yüzde 0,19 ile metal ana sanayi oldu.
Dün satıcılı bir seyir izleyen Borsa İstanbul'da BIST 100 endeksi, günü yüzde 0,52 değer kaybederek 8.618,57 puandan tamamladı.
Küresel piyasalarda ABD'deki başkanlık seçimlerinin sonuçları öncesinde karışık bir seyir izlenirken, kesin olmayan sonuçlara göre Cumhuriyetçi aday Donald Trump , Demokrat aday Kamala Harris'e karşı yarışı önde tamamladı.
Borsa İstanbul güne yükselişle başladı
Seçim sonuçlarına göre ABD'nin ekonomi politikalarda değişiklik olması beklenirken, bu durumun varlık fiyatlarını da etkileyeceği öngörülüyor.
Dolar endeksi söz konusu sonuçların ardından yüzde 1,7 artışla 105,2 seviyesine yükseldi.
ABD'nin 10 yıllık tahvil faizi yaklaşık 15 baz puan yükselişle temmuz başından bu yana en yüksek seviye olan yüzde 4,44'ü görmesinin ardından yüzde 4,42'ye çekildi.
Analistler, Trump'ın başkan seçilmesi halinde izleyebileceği politikalara ilişkin beklentilerin varlık fiyatlarına yansıdığını kaydederek, piyasalarda bugün oynaklığın artabileceğini ifade etti.
Bugün yurt içinde veri gündeminin sakin, yurt dışında ise ABD Başkanlık seçimlerinin sonuçlarının yanı sıra Almanya'da fabrika siparişleri ve hizmet sektörü PMI, Avro Bölgesi'nde hizmet sektörü PMI ve Üretici Fiyat Endeksi (ÜFE) ABD'de haftalık mortgage başvurularının takip edileceğini belirten analistler, teknik açıdan BIST 100 endeksinde 8.800 ve 8.900 seviyelerinin direnç, 8.600 ve 8.500 puanın destek konumunda olduğunu kaydetti.
FED KARARLARI NE YÖNDE OLACAK? Uzmanlar, Donald Trump 'ın ABD'nin 47. Başkanı seçilmesiyle faizlerin beklentilerin üzerinde kalabileceği, Fed'in faiz oranlarını düşürmeyi daha erken bırakabileceği öngörüsünde bulundu.
Vadeli işlem ve emtia piyasaları uzmanı Zafer Ergezen, Trump'ın uygulayacağı ekonomi politikalarının gelecek dönem içerisinde enflasyondaki düşüşü nispeten sınırlayabileceğini söyledi.
Faizlerin, beklentilerin üzerinde kalabileceğine işaret eden Ergezen, seçim sonucunda dolar endeksinde yukarı yönlü bir hareketin görüldüğünü böylece genel olarak varlık fiyatlarının nispeten baskı altın da kaldığını ifade etti.
ABD seçimleri sürerken piyasalar hareketlendi (Takvim.com.tr Fotoğraf Arşivi)
Dolar endeksindeki yükselişle birlikte paritelerde, altın tarafında, kıymetli metallerde, endüstriyel metallerde değer kayıplarının olduğunu aktaran Ergezen, ABD ekonomisinin güçlü kalacağına yönelik tahminlerin ABD tarafında sermaye ve para piyasalarında daha güçlü görünümün oluşmasına neden olabileceğini kaydetti.
Ergezen, özellikle emtia tarafında hareketli bir piyasanın görüldüğünü belirtti.
Daha güçlü bir dolar beklentisiyle emtia tarafında gerilemelerin olduğunu ifade eden Ergezen, "Trump'ın başkan seçilmesiyle birlikte özellikle tarifelere yönelik vurgu yapıyor olması yani uluslararası ticaretin etkilenebilecek olması, varlık fiyatları ve emtia üzerinde baskıyı artıran unsurlardan bir tanesi." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Takvim Foto Arşiv
Ergezen, Trump'ın başkan seçilmesinin en fazla fayda sağladığı alanlardan bir tanesinin kripto paralar olduğunu dile getirdi. Bitcoin'in yüzde 8'in üzerinde değer kazandığını kaydeden Ergezen, "Trump'ın kripto varlıklara çok daha sıcak baktığını biliyoruz. " dedi.
Trump'ın hem seçim süreci hem de öncesinde kripto varlıklara ilişkin açıklamaları olduğunu anımsatan Ergezen, bundan sonra da kripto para piyasasının muhtemelen daha fazla güçlenebileceğini dile getirdi.
TRUMP, BU DÖNEMDE POLİTİKALARINI DAHA ETKİLİ BİR ŞEKİLDE UYGULAYABİLİR
Berenberg Başekonomisti Holger Schmieding, ABD'nin 47. Başkanı seçilen Donald Trump 'ın öngörülemez olmaya devam ettiğini söyledi.
Takvim Foto Arşiv
Onun genellikle iddialı ve her zaman tutarlı olmayan kampanya vaatlerinden hangilerini gerçekten uygulayacağının tahmin edilemediğini kaydeden Schmieding, Donald Trump 'ın politikalarının muhtemelen ekonomik büyümeye geçici bir ivme kazandırabileceğini belirtti.
Schmieding, "Daha gevşek bir maliye politikası, daha fazla büyüme ve ciddi tarifeler durumunda daha yüksek tüketici fiyatları muhtemelen Fed'i faiz oranlarını düşürmeyi daha erken bırakmaya, muhtemelen yüzde 3,75-4,0 aralığı yerine yüzde 4,25-4,5 hedef aralığında bırakmaya zorlayacaktır." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Trump'ın ilk görevine başladığı Ocak 2017 dönemine göre politik tercihlerini daha hızlı ve etkili bir şekilde uygulayabileceğini dile getiren Schmieding, Avrupalı şirketler açısından Trump'ın Beyaz Saray'a dönüşünün kıtadaki büyüme üzerinde olumsuz etkilere sahip önemli bir ticaret politikası ve jeopolitik belirsizlik anlamına gelebileceğini ifade etti.