Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Para Politikası Kurulu (PPK), Merkez Bankası Başkanı Fatih Karahan başkanlığında toplandı.
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Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Para Politikası Kurulu (PPK), Merkez Bankası Başkanı Fatih Karahan başkanlığında toplandı.
Faiz kararı, saat 14.00'te açıklandı.
FAİZ SABİT KALDI
TCMB'den faiz oranlarına ilişkin yapılan duyuruda, Yaşar Fatih Karahan başkanlığında toplanan Kurul'un, politika faizinin yüzde 50'de sabit kalmasına karar verdiği bildirildi.
Ekim ayında enflasyonun ana eğiliminde düşüş gözlendiği belirtilen duyuruda, şunlar kaydedildi:
"Son çeyreğe ilişkin göstergeler yurt içi talebin yavaşlamaya devam ederek enflasyondaki düşüşü destekleyici seviyelere geldiğini ima etmektedir. Temel mal enflasyonu düşük seyretmeye devam ederken, hizmet enflasyonunda iyileşmeye dair sinyaller belirginleşmiştir."
İYİLEŞME EĞİLİMİNE DİKKAT ÇEKİLDİ
Duyuruda, geçici arz koşullarına bağlı olarak işlenmemiş gıda enflasyonun yüksek seyrini sürdürdüğü vurgulanarak "Enflasyon beklentileri ve fiyatlama davranışları iyileşme eğilimi sergilemekle birlikte, dezenflasyon süreci açısından risk unsuru olmaya devam etmektedir." ifadesi kullanıldı.
Para politikasındaki kararlı duruşun yurt içi talepte dengelenme, Türk lirasında reel değerlenme ve enflasyon beklentilerinde düzelme vasıtası ile aylık enflasyonun ana eğilimini düşürecek ve dezenflasyon sürecini güçlendireceği aktarılan duyuruda, maliye politikasının artan eşgüdümünün de bu sürece önemli katkı sağlayacağı bildirildi.
Duyuruda, aylık enflasyonun ana eğiliminde belirgin ve kalıcı bir düşüş sağlanana ve enflasyon beklentilerinin öngörülen tahmin aralığına yakınsayana kadar sıkı para politikası duruşunun sürdürüleceği belirtilerek, şunlar kaydedildi:"Bu doğrultuda, politika faizinin seviyesi, enflasyon gerçekleşmeleri ve beklentileri göz önünde bulundurularak öngörülen dezenflasyon sürecinin gerektirdiği sıkılığı sağlayacak şekilde belirlenecektir. Kurul, enflasyon üzerindeki yukarı yönlü risklere karşı ihtiyatlı duruşunu yinelemiştir. Enflasyonda belirgin ve kalıcı bir bozulma öngörülmesi durumunda para politikası araçları etkili şekilde kullanılacaktır. Kredi ve mevduat piyasalarında öngörülenin dışında gelişmeler olması durumunda parasal aktarım mekanizması ilave makroihtiyati adımlarla desteklenecektir. Likidite koşulları muhtemel gelişmeler göz önünde bulundurularak yakından izlenmektedir. Sterilizasyon araçları etkili şekilde kullanılmaya devam edilecektir. Kurul, politika kararlarını parasal sıkılaştırmanın gecikmeli etkilerini de dikkate alarak, enflasyonun ana eğilimini geriletecek ve enflasyonu orta vadede yüzde 5 hedefine ulaştıracak parasal ve finansal koşulları sağlayacak şekilde belirleyecektir."
Enflasyon ve enflasyonun ana eğilimine ilişkin göstergelerin yakından takip edileceği aktarılan duyuruda, Kurulun fiyat istikrarı temel amacı doğrultusunda elindeki tüm araçları kararlılıkla kullanacağı bildirdi.
Duyuruda, "Kurul, kararlarını öngörülebilir, veri odaklı ve şeffaf bir çerçevede alacaktır." ifadesine yer verildi.
UZMAN İSİM İKİ TARİHİ İŞARET ETTİ
Stratejist Cüneyt Paksoy ve A Para Yayın Koordinatörü Özlem Doğaner, A Haber canlı yayınında Merkez Bankası'nın faiz kararına ilişkin değerlendirmelerde bulundu.
Stratejist Cüneyt Paksoy, "Bugün Rusya – Ukrayna savaşının devamı artı mevcut İsrail – Filistin sürecindeki nereye doğru evrileceği konusu, özellikle Trump geldikten sonra ABD – Çin arasındaki gerginlik… Jeopolitik riskler ve siyasal riskler ekonomiler üzerinde baskı kurdukça bu enflasyon üzerinde de farklı dinamiklerle baskı yaratacak ve merkez bankaları iki tanıma önem vererek ilerliyor. Bir yandan fiyat istikrarı ile mücadele bir yandan finansal istikrarın temini bu çok önemli. En önemlisi de büyüme tarafında kompozisyonun korunması. Kasım ayı enflasyonu çok önemli olacak. Manevra alanını ya ocakta kullanacak Merkez Bankası ya aralık ayında kullanacak. Ben aralık ayının da artık potaya girdiğini görüyorum." şeklinde konuştu.
Paksoy, konuşmalarına "Finansal istikrarın getireceği sermaye eksiğinin giderilmesiyle Türkiye daha farklı bir kompozisyona doğru ilerleyecek 2025'ten itibaren. Başlangıç 2025 olacaktır bu noktada. Merkez Bankası da bu politikaların başlangıcını yapacak diye düşünüyorum. Adından diğer bütün bakanlıklar yapısal reformlarla devrede olacaktır diye düşünüyorum." sözleriyle devam etti.
"İSTENİLEN SEVİYEDE DÜŞÜŞ GÖRÜLÜRSE HAMLE YAPACAKTIR"
A Para Yayın Koordinatörü Özlem Doğaner ise; "Önümüzdeki ay eğer enflasyonda istenilen seviyede bir düşüşü görürse bir hamle yapacaktır mesajını alıyorum ben." dedi.
GEÇEN AY SABİT KALMIŞTI
Geçen ay gerçekleştirilen PPK toplantısında politika faizi yüzde 50 seviyesinde sabit tutulmuştu.
EKONOMİSTLERİN BEKLENTİSİ NE YÖNDEYDİ?
Beklenti anketine katılan ekonomistlerin tamamı, kasım ayında Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankasının (TCMB) politika faizini yüzde 50'de sabit bırakmasını bekliyordu.
Anket sonuçlarına göre, ekonomistlerin tamamı politika faizinin yüzde 50'de sabit bırakılacağını öngörüyordu.
"ARALIK AYINDA FAİZ İNDİRİMİ OLABİLİR"
A Para ekranlarında değerlendirmelerde bulunan Teknik Analiz Selçuk Gönençler, "Ben bu ay pas bekliyorum. Aralık ayında ise indirim bekliyorum. Bu sene ilk indirimin aralık ayında olmasını bekliyorum. İndirim Ocak ayında da olabilir. Güçlü bir faiz indirimi değil, bu seneyi faiz indirimi ile kapatıyoruz şeklinde bir mesaj olacağını düşünüyorum. " ifadelerini kullandı.
DEUTSCHE BANK BEKLENTİYİ DEĞİŞTİRDİ
Gönençli, değerlendirmesinde Bank of America ve Deutsche Bank'ın raporuna da dikkat çekti.
Deutsche Bank ekonomisti Christian Wietoska, Merkez Bankası'nın ilk faiz indirimi zamanlamasına ilişkin tahminlerini değiştirmişti.
Kurum, 2025 ocak ayında başlamasını öngördüğü 250 baz puan faiz indirim beklentisini aralık ayına çekti. Son enflasyon tahminlerindeki güncellemeler, Merkez Bankası'nın 'daha az şahin tonu', ABD seçimleri sonrası küresel piyasadaki dalgalanmaya rağmen TL'nin dirençli duruşu nedeniyle indirim beklentisi öne çekildi.
ARALIK AYINDAN SONRA KADEMELİ İNDİRİM
Raporda Aralık sonrası bankanın temkinli ve kademeli indirimlerinin devamının beklendiği vurgulandı. Kasım'da manşet enflasyonun aylık yüzde 2'nin altına ineceği öngörüldü.
Raporda Kasım'da tahminin üzerinde enflasyon rakamı ve jeopolitik gerilimin artması gibi bazı riskler nedeniyle indirimin Ocak ayında başlayabileceği de ifade edildi.
İşte piyasalardaki son durum...