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Tarihi doğal gaz keşfinde 2023 hedefi: 3 önemli faktör Başkan Erdoğan'ın Karadeniz'de 320 milyar metreküp doğal gaz keşfedildiğini açıklaması Türkiye'de yeni bir dönemi başlattı. Keşfedilen doğal gazın 2023 hedefleri çerçevesinde kullanılıp kullanılamayacağı tartışılıyor. Uzmanlar, denizlerde yapılmış bir gaz keşfi ile o sahadan gaz akışının başlamasının 5-7 yıl sürdüğünü ancak bunun Türkiye için önemli bir kriter olmadığını belirtiyor. Türkiye'nin bu süreyi azaltmasında 3 önemli faktör olduğunu belirten Enerji Uzmanı Dr. Sohbet Karbuz, "Gemilere sahip olduğumuz için tespit kuyuları için gemi aramayacağız, finansman da aramayacağız çünkü alıcı belli. TPAO devlete ait olduğu için bürokratik prosedürler olmayacak. Boru hattı yapılacak ve üretim platformu bulacaksınız. Bizde süre çok kısıtlı olacak." açıklamasında bulundu. takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 25 Ağustos 2020 , 10:05 Güncelleme Tarihi : 25 Ağustos 2020 , 10:05
Tarihinin en büyük doğal gaz rezervini Karadeniz'de bulan Türkiye'nin bu gazı ne kadar sürede çıkarıp piyasaya süreceği ile ilgili tartışmalar devam ediyor.
Bilindiği üzere Başbakan Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, keşfedilen gazın 2023 yılında halkın kullanımına sunulacağını söyledi. Dolayısıyla Türkiye Petrol Anonim Ortaklığı'nın önünde 3 yıldan daha kısa bir süre bulunuyor.
Yeni Şafak'a değerlendirmelerde bulunan Akdeniz Ülkeleri Enerji Şirketleri Birliği Hidrokarbonlar Müdürü Dr. Sohbet Karbuz'a göre, keşfedilen doğal gazın 2023 yılında piyasaya sunulmasının önünde bir engel bulunmuyor.
Mısır'ın geçtiğimiz yıllarda Doğu Akdeniz'deki Zohr Sahası'nda 860 milyar metreküp bulduğunu hatırlatan Karbuz, "Bu devasa sahada keşiften ilk gaz akışının başladığı zaman arasında geçen süre sadece 28 aydır. Bu sektörde bir rekordur" dedi.
Denizlerde yapılmış bir gaz keşfi ile o sahadan gaz akışının başlaması arasında geçen sürenin 5 ile 7 yıl arasında sürdüğünü belirten Karbuz, bunun Türkiye için önemli bir kriter olmadığını söyledi ve şöyle devam etti:
"Sektörde işler şöyle işliyor. Önce gaz sahası buldunuz, tespit kuyuları açarsınız. Bir sürü testler yaparsınız. 7-8 ay, 1 sene geçer. Herkesin elinde gemi yok, kiralamak için sıraya gireceksiniz, randevu alacaksınız vs. Bunlar zaman alan şeyler. Sonra çıkarılabilir gaz rezervini tahmin edeceksiniz. Üretim modeliniz hazırlayacaksınız. Gazı sahadan karaya nasıl taşıyacağınızı ve karada gerekli tesislerin planını ve muhasebesini yaparsınız. Ondan sonra hangi ülkede faaliyet gösteriyorsanız, o ülkenin makamları ile masaya oturacaksınız. Biz şu kadar çıkarılan gaz miktarı var. 'Yıllık üretim miktarı şu kadar olarak planlıyoruz. Siz iç piyasaya ne kadarını alacaksınız ve ne kadarını ihraç etme olanağı vereceksiniz' gibi konuları müzakereleri yaparsınız. Bu sahayı üretime sokmak için finansman bulmanız gerekecek. Bankalar, alım ve satım garantisi ister. Devlet ile ve ihracat yapacaksanız alıcıyla anlaşmanız getirmeniz gerekir. Aynı zamanda şirket içerisinde bir çok prosedür gereklidir. Yönetime durumun sunulması. Sonra yönetim uygun görürse nihai yatırım kararı alınır.
Bu yoğun aşamaları Türkiye yaşamayacak. Biz gemi aramayacağız, finansman aramayacağız, alıcı belli. Bürokratik prosedürler olmayacak. Boru hattı yapılacak sadece. Bir de üretim platformu bulacaksınız. Bizde süre çok kısıtlı olacak."
TÜRKİYE HENÜZ YENİ BAŞLADI
Türkiye'nin sondaj faaliyetlerine henüz yeni başladığına dikkat çeken Karbuz, şu ifadelere yer verdi:
"Mesela Akdeniz'de bugüne kadar yapılan sondaj sayısı, 15 ya da 17'dir. Malta adasını biliyorsunuz. Haritada nokta gibi gözükür. O Malta adası bile 13 sondaj gerçekleştirdi. Özetle Türkiye denizleri yeteri kadar aranmamış durumda. Aramazsanız bulamazsanız, bu demek değildir ki yok. Benzer bir şekilde İsrail kurulduğundan bu yana kara ve denizde yüzlerce sondaj yaptı, milyarlarca dolar para harcadı. Kuyuların çoğu boş çıktı. Güvenlerini kaybetmediler. Varsa onlar da bulacağız dediler.
MISIR DOĞU AKDENİZ'DEKİ EN BÜYÜK REZERVİ BULDU
Mısır da da derin denizlerde aramalar nispeten yetersizdi. 2015 yılında Akdeniz'de bugüne kadar keşfedilen en büyük doğal gaz sahası açıklandı. 850 milyar metreküp yerinde gaz miktarı. Dünyanın en büyük doğal gaz sahalarından biri. O bölgede hiç sondaj yapılmadı mı? O parsel Shell'indi mesela. Shell o parselin içinde Zohr sahasının birkaç yüz km aşağısında iki sondaj yapmıştı ama bulamamıştı. Şu anda birkaç parsele bölünmüş olan o kocaman parseli, hidrokarbon yoktur diyerek, Mısır hükümetine teslim etmişti. Birkaç sene sonra ENİ, burada 'Shell aradı ama bulamadı ama biz ilginç bir yapı gördük, deneyelim' dedi ve buldu."
SONDAJDA REZERV BULMA ORANI YÜZDE 33
Sondaj yapmanın riskli ve maliyetli olduğunu ve rezerv bulma oranının ortalama yüzde 33 olduğuna dikkat çeken Karbuz, şöyle devam etti:
"Kuzey Denizi 1970'lerden beri dünyanın en büyük gaz ve petrol aramacılığında bir yere gelmiştir. Norveç sularında sondajları açılan gösteren haritaya baktığınızda sanki boş yer bulamazsınız. Burası yeteri kadar aranmış denir. Burada bulunursa çok küçük miktarlarda olur diye. Ama görüldü ki, daha önceleri birkaç metre ileride kuyu açılmış yerde oldukça önemli doğal gaz sahası bulunmuş. Sondajı yapan matkabın bacağınız kalınlığında genişliği var. Bir iki metre sağa giderseniz bulamazsınız, ama tutturabilirsiniz de. Elbette çok iyi teknik çalışmaları tamamlamak lazım. Masraflı bir şey. Bugün bir sondaj yapmak 80-100 milyon dolar arası. O kadar parayı riske atıyorsunuz."
GELECEK DERİN DENİZLERDE
Sakarya sahasında bulunan rezervin, Türkiye'nin gelecekteki petrol ve doğal gaz sektörünün gelişmesine çok önemli katkılar sunacağını belirten Karbuz, "Türkiye, hem teknik hem de ileride insan gücünün gelişmesi konusunda çok önemli bir staj yeri olacak. Derin deniz aramacılığında fazla deneyimli insanlarımız yok, gelecek denizlerde ve özellikle derin denizlerde petrol ve gaz aramacılığında. Bu konuda teknik elemanların yetişmesi ve gerekli bilgi ve teknoloji birikimin transferi için belki çok önemli aşama olacaktır." dedi.
İKİNCİ KATMANDA BİR BU KADAR REZERV DAHA OLABİLİR
Sakarya sahasının birkaç katmandan oluştuğuna dikkat çeken Karbuz, sözlerini şöyle tamamladı:
"Bu ilk bulduğu katmanın bulguları. Bir sondaki katmana doğru inmeye devam edileceği söylendi. İkinci katmanda da bu kadar rezerv olabilir. Bunu zaman gösterecek. Bu kadar tartışmamak lazım. Teknik adamlar işlerini yapsınlar, tespit kuyuları açılacaktır ve ek testler yapılacaktır. Biraz sabırlı olmak gerekiyor. Büyük bir keşif yapılmıştır. Rezerv miktarı ne olursa olsun, sabit bir rakam değildir. Bu rakam zaman içerisinde iner ya da çıkar. Göreceğiz, öbür katmanda ne olacak? Bakarsınız çok büyük bir şey olur. Bence hepsinden önemlisi burada gaz bulunması."