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Trump’ın ikinci tehdidi piyasaları neden sallamadı? “Sessiz devrimin kodları” Türkiye 2018 Ağustos ayında tarihinin en büyük finansal saldırısını yaşadı. Bu saldırının boyutu ya da herhangi bir gelişmekte olan ülke ekonomisine vereceği zarar konusunda tüm ekonomi çevrelerinde mutabakat vardı. ABD Başkanı Trump’ın 2018’de attığı Tweet piyasalara etki ederken, son attığı Tweet’in etkisi sınırlı kaldı. Peki Trump’ın ikinci tehdidi piyasaları neden sallamadı? İşte 2018 Ağustos'tan 2019 Ekim'e: Sessiz devrimin kodları... takvim.com.tr Giriş Tarihi : 11 Ekim 2019 , 16:40 Güncelleme Tarihi : 11 Ekim 2019 , 17:01
Ekonomi yönetimi, Rusya'nın bile birkaç yıl içinden çıkamadığı böyle bir türbülanstan bir yılda ülkeyi çıkardı. Ekonomi çevrelerinin "dipten dönüş" olarak adlandırdığı süreç taraflı tarafsız herkesin beklentilerinden erken oldu. Bu süreçte bir yanda özellikle sınır ötesinde devam eden tarihi terör operasyonları, diğer tarafta gündemi işgal eden seçimler olmasına rağmen dönüş ivmesi yakalandı.
"14 AY SONRA TRUMP'IN İTİRAFI" Aradan 14 ay kadar süre geçtikten sonra Trump, benzer bir Tweet daha attı. Doğrudan doğruya bir kez daha Türkiye ekonomisini yok etmekle tehdit etti ve "Daha önce de yaptım" dedi. Daha önce yaptığını itiraf etmesi, bir yıldır ekonomide verilen mücadelenin boyutlarını ortaya koydu. "Dış güçler" ifadesi ile karikatürize edilmeye çal��şılan "Türkiye ekonomisine operasyonu" ete-kemiğe büründürdü. Ancak bundan belki daha önemlisi, 14 ay sonra gelen bu tehdidin çok cüzi bir etkinin dışında piyasalarda endişeye, korkuya neden olmaması oldu. İşte bunun da nedeni, 14 ayda Türkiye ekonomisinin bağışıklık sisteminin güçlendirilmesinin, kırılganlıkların azaltılmasının ötesinde, 14 aydır Türkiye ekonomisindeki büyük değişimden başka bir şey değil.
"14 AYDA NELER DEĞİŞTİ?" Görünüşte, tüm ekonomi çevreleri "kur, enflasyon, faiz" konusu etrafında tartışmaları sürdürürken, arka planda, Ağustos ayındaki gibi büyük bir operasyona maruz kalabilecek hiçbir ülkenin cesaret edemeyeceği dönüşümün tohumları atıldı. Yeni Akit'in haberine göre nasıl ki, savunma sanayiinde maruz kalınan art niyetli tavır Türkiye'yi savunma sanayiinde devrim niteliğinde işler yapmaya itti, aynı şekilde küresel finans sistemi içerisinde maruz kalınanlar da sessiz bir devrimin hayata geçirilmesi için işaret fişeğinin yakılmasını sağladı.
İŞTE "SESSİZ DEVRİMİN" ÖNE ÇIKAN ALANLARI SWAP PİYASASI: 2018 yılı ağustos ayında yurt dışı ile yapılan "kirli swap işlemleri" 180 milyar TL civarındayken 1 yıl içerisinde bu hacim üçte birine düşerek 60 milyar TL seviyesine getirildi. Yine aynı şekilde 500 milyar TL'yi bulan toplam yurt dışı swap hacmi bugün neredeyse bunun yarısına geriledi. 70 milyar TL civarında olan yurt içi swap piyasası hacmi yalnızca bir yılda iki katını geçerek 150 milyar TL seviyesine geldi.
CARİ AÇIK MÜCADELESİ VE ÜRETİM ÖNCELİKLİ MODEL: Berat Albayrak'ın ekonomideki meselelere bakış açısının ipucu olarak Enerji Bakanlığı dönemindeki politikalarına bakabiliriz. Milli Enerji ve Maden Politikası çatısı altında topladığı, daha sonra bakanlığın "Yeşil Kitabı" olarak kendisinden sonra gelen bakanlara bir "ülkü devamlılığı" olarak bıraktığı politika ve stratejilerin hizmet ettiği nihai amaç, Türkiye'nin cari açığının en büyük nedeni olan enerjide dışa bağımlılığın azaltılması olmuştur. En zor dönemde açıklanan Yeni Ekonomi Programı içinde ilan edilen "İhracatı ve yüksek katma değerli ürün üretimini önceliklendiren yeni model" başarı ile uygulanmaya devam ediyor. 2018-2021 OVP ilk defa YEP adı altında, ülkenin dengelenme, disiplin ve değişim üzerine gerçekçi bir yaklaşım makro hedefler belirlendi.
DÜŞÜK FAİZ REKABETÇİ KUR: Ağustos ayından bu yana ekonomideki algıyı yönetmeye çalışanların insanları tedirgin etmek için kullandıkları enstrümanların başında kur ve faiz geldi. Atılan her adımdan sonra "Kur uçacak", her saldırıdan sonra "Faiz yükseltilmeli" diyenlere bakılmadan "Düşük Faiz, Rekabetçi Kur" stratejisi işletildi. Daha çok üretmek için maliyetler düşmeli, ihracat ve doğrudan yatırımlar için kurun rekabetçi bir seviyede olması gerekliydi. Türkiye, yaklaşan küresel krize belki de en hazırlıklı ülke konumuna geldi. Çünkü Türkiye önlem setini 2019 Ağustos'ta değil, tam bir yıl önce 2018 Ağustos'ta devreye aldı.
En zor günde piyasalara güven veren Yeni Ekonomi Programı, ekonomi ile sınırlı kalmayıp, ticaretten tarıma, adaletten sanayiye kadar her alanda atılacak adımları içeren Yapısal Dönüşüm Adımları ve ekonomi yönetimi anlayışındaki değişim dünyadan 1 yıl önce geniş bir yelpazede bir set devrede. Bugünkü ekonomi yönetiminin hayali olan "Varlık Fonu" gerçek manada dünyadaki örneklerine benzer bir yapıya kavuştu. 2023'te 100 milyar dolar büyüklüğe ulaşması hedeflenen bu fon; değişimin, sağlıklı ve sürdürülebilir büyümenin altyapısını oluşturacak.