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İstanbul Kuyumcular Odası (İKO) Başkanı Mustafa Atayık , bu hafta içerisinde döviz likiditesi konusunda kamu ve özel sektörden yurt dışı borçlanma enstrümanlarıyla ilgili gelecek olumlu haber akışının, doların fiyatını 7 TL`den ilk etapta 6,90-6,70 TL aralığına çekebileceğini belirterek, "Aksi durumda, uzmanların öngörüsüyle altının gramında 389 TL ve üstünü görmek olası olabilir" dedi.
Atayık, yaptığı açıklamada, altın ve para piyasalarının, 4 ayı aşkın süredir koronavirüs gündemiyle kendisine bir rota ve trend bulmaya çalıştığını ifade etti.
Atayık, "Birçok ülkede uzmanlar, virüste pik noktaların aşıldığını dile getirse bile virüsün piyasa ve fiyatlara yansımalarının kısa sürede biteceğini beklemek doğru olmaz." dedi.
ABD ve birçok Avrupa ülkesinin normalleşme yönünde önlemleri gevşetme adımları attığını aktaran Atayık, Türkiye'nin de pandemi konusunda dünyada örneğine az rastlanır bir başarıya imza attığını söyledi.
Hükümet yetkililerinin, normalleşme için Ramazan Bayramı sonrasına ve haziran ayına işaret ettiğini belirten Atayık, kamuoyuna rehavete kapılınmaması gerektiği yönünde mesajlar verildiğini anlattı.
Atayık, dünyada merkez
banka larının piyasadaki likidite ihtiyacını karşılamak ve reel sektörü teşvik etmek amacıyla destek paketleri açıklamasının altının yukarı gidişini sağladığını ifade ederek, "Merkez bankalarının adımları ve özellikle
faiz indirimleri, altının ons bazında son 7 yılın rekor fiyatlarına ulaşmasında etkili oldu. Nitekim geçen cuma günü ABD Merkez Bankası (
Fed ), faizleri düşürmedi ancak Fed'in, piyasayı fonlamaya devam edeceği mesajı vermesi bile ons fiyatlarını bir anda 1,700 doların üzerine çıkardı." diye konuştu.
"LİKİDİTE SORUNU YAŞAYAN ÜLKELER, ELLERİNDEKİ ALTINLARI BOZUYOR" Mustafa Atayık , altının yükselişini hem destekleyen hem de zaman zaman gerileyerek düzeltme yapmasına yol açan bir diğer unsurun ise petrol fiyatları olduğunu işaret ederek, şunları kaydetti: "Petrolde tarihi dip noktaların görülmesi ve üretici ülkeler aralarında anlaşsalar bile piyasalardaki talep azlığı nedeniyle fiyatların bir türlü istenen rakamlara çıkmaması, finans piyasalarını tedirgin ediyor. Düşük petrol fiyatları nedeniyle likidite sorunu yaşayan ülkeler, bu kez bu sorunlarını ve açık pozisyonlarını gidermek amacıyla özellikle ay sonlarında ellerindeki altınları bozma yolunu tercih ediyor. Bu durum da altının ons fiyatı nda 1,700 dolar seviyeleri görülse bile geri çekilişleri görmemize yol açıyor." ABD ve AB ülkelerinin destek paketleriyle piyasada yaşanan likidite bolluğunun gelişmiş ülkelerde doların fiyatını düşürdüğünü aktaran Atayık, bu durumun gelişmekte olan piyasalarda doların fiyatını yükselttiğini söyledi.
"YATIRIM İÇİN ALTIN BİRİKİMİ YAPACAKSANIZ FİZİKİ ALTIN ALIN" İKO Başkanı Atayık, salgın gündemiyle tüm dünyanın olağanüstü bir süreçten geçerken, dünyada bazı madenlerin rafinerilerinin düşük kapasiteyle çalıştığını, uçak kargolarının açık olduğunu ancak lojistik ve gümrüklerde sıkıntılar yaşandığını anlattı. Dünya kuyumculuk piyasasının da bir süredir nispi olarak kapalı halde bulunduğunu aktaran Atayık, şunları kaydetti: "Ekranlarda anlık olarak yansıyan fiyatları incelerken şuna dikkat edilmeli; piyasada 1 kontrat fiziki altın işlem görüyorsa 300-400 kontrat kağıt üzerinde işlem görüyor. Dolayısıyla altının onsunda oluşan 1,700 dolar rakamları, içinde bulunduğumuz sürecin bir ürünü. Reel olarak bu fiyatın piyasada bir karşılığı yok, bu fiyatlara köpük veya spekülatif hareketler olarak bakmakta yarar vardır. Sektör olarak ısrarla hep söylüyoruz; yatırım için altın birikimi yapacaksanız kuyumculara gelerek fiziki altın alın. Altın takı ve mücevher alın. Düğünde hediye edilen altınlar, sevdikleriniz için aldığınız altın takı, mücevher ve incili takılar, her ay maaşınızdan artırarak yaptığınız altın birikimleri böyle zor ve sıkıntılı süreçlerde sorunların aşılması için can simidi oluyor. Bu nedenle hediye olarak aldığınız altın takı ve mücevherler, kriz zamanlarında her zaman günü kurtaran, yüzünüzü güldüren yatırım olarak işlevini yerine getiriyor."
"DÜNYANIN TEK GERÇEK PARASI ALTINDIR" Mustafa Atayık , geçmiş krizlerde olduğu gibi bu salgın sürecinde de vatandaşların, ellerindeki bilezikleri, kolye, küpe ve diğer altın birikimlerini bozdurmak amacıyla kuyumcuların yolunu tuttuğunu, altın takıların bozdurularak ekonomiye kazandırılması ile de çarkların yeniden döndüğünü söyledi. Atayık, "Unutulmamalı ki dünyanın tek gerçek parası altındır. Önümüzdeki aylarda piyasanın üzerindeki kara bulutlar dağılınca ons fiyatlarında aşağı doğru geri çekilişleri yeniden görebiliriz. Ancak öyle görünüyor ki haziran ayında dünya ekonomilerinde normalleşme sürecine geçilse bile salgın sürecinin ekonomilere faturası ve hasar tespitleri, ABD , Avrupa ve Asya ülkelerinden gelecek enflasyon , büyüme konusundaki veriler, altın ve döviz fiyatlarındaki rallinin bir süre daha devam etmesini sağlayabilir." ifadelerini kullandı.
"ALTININ ONSU, HIZLA 1,650 DOLAR VE ALTINA GEVŞEYEBİLİR" İKO Başkanı Atayık, 2020 yılına 478 TL'yle başlayan çeyrek altın ın, yüzde 32 artışla nisan ayında 633 TL'yi gördüğünü, yıla 291 TL'yle başlayan gram altın ın geçen hafta 389,5 TL'ye kadar çıkarak yüzde 30'un üstünde prim yaptığını hatırlattı. Atayık, şunları kaydetti: "Bilindiği gibi iç piyasada altın, hem doların TL karşısındaki ederi hem de küresel piyasalardaki ons değerleri üzerinden belirleniyor. Bu nedenle çeyrek altın ve gram altın fiyat aralıkları öngörülerinde dolar/TL kotasyonları çok önemlidir. Dün açıklanan enflasyon verileri beklenildiği gibi düşük çıktı. Bu hafta içerisinde döviz likiditesi konusunda kamu ve özel sektörden yurt dışı borçlanma enstrümanlarıyla ilgili gelecek olumlu haber akışı, dolar fiyatı nı 7 TL'den ilk etapta 6,90-6,70 TL aralığına çekebilir. Aksi durumda, uzmanların öngörüsüyle altının gramında 389 TL ve üstünü görmek olası olabilir. Pek ihtimal vermiyorum ancak analistlerin tahminlerine göre doların 7 TL üzeri çıkışı devam eder, altının onsu da direnç olarak gösterilen 1,740 seviyesini kırarsa bir süredir dile getirilen gram altında 400 TL'yi de görebiliriz. Diğer yandan, birçok uzmanın işaret ettiği gibi petrol üreten ülkeler başta olmak üzere yatırımcılar, petroldeki düşük fiyat nedeniyle oluşan nakit ihtiyaçlarını karşılamak için nisan ayında yapmaları beklenen altın satışlarını bu ay içerisinde gerçekleştirebilirler. Bu durumda altının onsu, hızla 1,650 dolar ve altına gevşeyebilir. Bu nedenle analistler ve uzman isimlerin tavsiye ettiği gibi ons fiyatı ve doların geri çekilişlerinde 350 TL ve altındaki gram fiyatları, 590-540 TL ve altındaki çeyrek altın seviyeleri alım için yatırımcılarımıza fırsat sunabilir."