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İngiltere 'nin 2016 yılında başlayan Avrupa Birliği 'nden (AB) ayrılık süreci (Brexit ) nihayet 2020'nin son günlerinde taraflar arasında imzalanan ticaret anlaşmasıyla tamamen sona erdi. Bu kapsamda iki taraf bir serbest ticaret anlaşması (STA) imzalayarak ayrılık sürecini oldukça yumuşak bir geçişle tamamlamış oldu. Bunun yanı sıra İngiltere'nin diğer ülkelerle imzalamayı planladığı olası yeni ticaret anlaşmalarının önünün açılması AB ile anlaşmaya bağlı olduğu için bu STA'nın kesinleşmesi iki taraf için olduğu kadar Türk iye gibi üçüncü ülkeler için de merakla bekleniyordu. Nitekim Londra ve Brüksel arasında anlaşmaya varıldıktan hemen sonra Türk ve İngiliz hükümet temsilcileri bir araya gelip iki ülke arasındaki ticareti de serbest kılmak için anlaşmaya vardı. Böylece Türkiye ve İngiltere arasında ticarette yeni fırsatların önü açıldı.
TİCARİ İLİŞKİLERİN KISA GEÇMİŞİ
Türkiye ve İngiltere arasındaki serbest ticaret anlaşmasına dair bir değerlendirme yapmadan evvel ikili ticari ilişkilerin geçmişine ve temel dinamiklerine kısa da olsa bakmakta fayda var. Bu bağlamda ikili ticari ilişkileri esasen 15. yüzyıla kadar götürebiliriz. Elimizdeki verilere göre bu dönemden başlamak üzere iki taraf arasındaki ticaret hacminin bir süreliğine görece dengeli olduğunu, 19. yüzyılla birlikte ise bu dengenin hızlı şekilde İngiltere lehine döndüğünü görüyoruz. Bunun temel sebebi ise bahsi geçen dönemde İngiltere'nin tüm dünyaya yayılan kolonyal bir güç haline gelmesi.
Zira bir taraftan gemilerle Asya ve Afrika'daki kolonilerden ülkeye getirilen hammadde stoğu İngiltere 'nin dışa bağımlılığını önemli ölçüde azaltmış, öte taraftan gemilerle ülkeye taşınan değerli madenler kısa süre içinde Londra 'da sermaye birikimine olanak sağlamıştır. Buna ilaveten Osmanlı devletinin 1838 Baltalimanı Muahedesi (Anlaşması) ile İngiltere'ye verdiği imtiyazların da ticaretteki dengesizlikte önemli bir rol oynadığını gözden kaçırmamak geçiyor. Öyle ki resmi rakamlara göre anlaşmayla birlikte İngiltere'nin Osmanlı'ya yaptığı ihracat sadece on yıl içerisinde iki kat artmıştır. Ancak taraflar arasındaki artan ticari dengesizlik cumhuriyetin ilanı ve İngiltere'ye daha önce verilen imtiyazlara son verilmesiyle birlikte daha dengeli bir hal almaya başladı.
İKİLİ TİCARETİN MEVCUT DİNAMİKLERİ Yakın döneme gelindiğinde ise Türk iye'nin 1995'te Gümrük Birliği 'ne girişiyle ticari ilişkiler yeni bir yöne evrildi. Daha o günlerden başlamak üzere bugünkü formunu alan Türk-İngiliz ticaretinin mevcut dinamiklerine yakından baktığımızda yaklaşık 3 trilyon dolarlık gayrisafi yurt içi hasılası (GSYİH) ile dünyanın altıncı büyük ekonomisi olan İngiltere 'nin Türkiye'nin en önemli ticari ortakları arasında yer aldığını görüyoruz. Nitekim Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu (TÜİK) verilerine göre İngiltere halihazırda Türkiye'nin en çok ihracat yaptığı ülkeler arasında ikinci, en çok ithalat yaptığı ülkeler arasında ise dokuzuncu sırada yer alıyor.
Aynı şekilde İngiltere 11 milyar dolarlık yatırım stoğu ile Türk ekonomisi için kritik finansal aktörlerden biri konumunda. Bunun tersine 2019 verilerine göre Türkiye, İngiltere'nin en çok ithalat yaptığı ülkeler arasında 16'ıncı sırada ve en çok ihracat yaptığı ülkeler arasında 17'inci sırada yer alıyor. Bunların yanı sıra yine TÜİK verilerine göre 2020 yılının ilk on ayında iki ülke arasındaki ticaret hacmi yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınının küresel piyasalarda yarattığı tahribata rağmen 13,5 milyar dolar olarak kayıtlara geçti. Bahsi geçen bu ticaret hacmi çerçevesinde Türkiye İngiltere'ye 9 milyar dolar ihracat ve İngiltere'den 4,5 milyar dolar ithalat yaparak önceki yıllarda olduğu gibi 2020 yılında da dış ticaret fazlası verdi. Son olarak iki ülke arasındaki ticaretin içeriğine baktığımızda ise Türkiye açısından İngiltere'ye yapılan ihracatta ön plana çıkan kalemler arasında kara araçları ve aksamları, kıymetli metaller, elektrikli makine ve cihazlarının; ithalatta ise kazan ve makineler, kıymetli taşlar ile demir ve çeliğin ilk sıralarda yer aldığını görüyoruz. Buradan hareketle ikili ticarette sanayi ürünlerinin önemli bir yer tuttuğunu anlıyoruz.
SERBEST TİCARET ANLAŞMASI VE YENİ FIRSATLAR 31 Ocak 2020 tarihi itibarıyla AB'den ayrılan İngiltere , yıl sonunda Gümrük Birliği 'nden çıkmadan önce Brüksel ile kapsamlı bir ticaret anlaşması imzalamak istedi. Zira bir anlaşmaya varılamaması halinde taraflar arasında Dünya Ticaret Örgütü'nün (DTÖ) belirlediği ticari kurallar devreye gireceğinden, anlaşmasız ayrılık İngiltere ve AB için ciddi problemlere yol açacaktı. Benzer risk Türk iye ve İngiltere arasındaki ticaretin devamlılığı için de geçerliydi; çünkü Gümrük Birliği'nden doğan yükümlülüklerden ötürü Türkiye sadece AB'nin tercihli ticaret anlaşması yaptığı taraflarla benzeri anlaşmalar yapabiliyor. Bir başka ifadeyle AB'nin ticaret anlaşması imzalamadığı ülkelerle Türkiye'nin STA ya da benzeri tercihli ticareti amaçlayan anlaşmalar yapması mümkün değil.
Dolayısıyla Türkiye ve İngiltere arasındaki ticaretin gümrük vergilerine takılmadan devam edebilmesi için öncelikle İngiltere ve AB'nin anlaşmaya varması gerekiyordu. Nitekim Londra ve Brüksel'in Aralık ayı sonunda kapsamlı bir STA üzerinde mutabakata varması üzerine Türkiye ve İngiltere arasında da hemen bir ticaret anlaşması imzalandı. Böylece ikili ticari ilişkiler yeni bir yasal zemine oturdu ve olası belirsizliklere mahal verilmemiş oldu. Sonuç olarak anlaşmayla birlikte Türk ve İngiliz iş insanları gümrük vergilerine takılmadan sorunsuz şekilde ticaretlerine devam edebilecekler. 1 Ocak 2021 itibarıyla yürürlüğe giren Türkiye-İngiltere serbest ticaret anlaşmas��yla birlikte daha önce Gümrük Birliği'nin her iki ülkeye sağladığı kazanımlar muhafaza edileceği gibi ayrıca iki ülke arasındaki ticarette ortaya çıkması muhtemel mali kayıpların da önüne geçilmiş olacak. Zira bu anlaşma imzalanmasaydı örneğin sadece Türkiye'nin İngiltere'ye yaptığı ihracatın yaklaşık yüzde 75'i vergi yüküyle karşı karşıya kalacaktı ve bunun sonucunda yaklaşık 2,5 milyar dolar mali kayıp oluşacaktı. Haliyle STA'nın yürürlüğe girmesiyle birlikte bu riskler de ortadan kalktı. Bunların yanı sıra ilgili anlaşma tüm sanayi ve tarım ürünlerini kapsamakla birlikte Türkiye'nin AB ile yaptığı Gümrük Birliği anlaşmasında hizmet ve yatırım sektörleri dahil edilmediği için bu sektörler anlaşmaya en azından şimdilik dahil edilmedi. Ancak iki ülkenin bu sektörleri de anlaşmaya dahil etme konusunda fikir birliğine varmış olması yakın zamanda bu yönde de adım atılacağı ihtimalini güçlendiriyor. Bu senaryonun gerçekleşmesi halinde ise toplam ticaret hacmi daha da artabilir.
Diğer taraftan STA ile birlikte iki ülke arasında yeni işbirliği alanları da ortaya çıktı. Bunların başında ise savunma sanayii geliyor. Zira İngiltere 'nin bu alanda sahip olduğu köklü tecrübenin yanı sıra, Türk iye'nin son dönemde özellikle insansız hava araçları sektöründe etkili bir aktör haline gelmesi ve bu sektördeki ilerlemelerin İngiliz hükümeti tarafından yakında takip edilmesi dikkate alınırsa, savunma sektöründe işbirliği için geniş bir alan bulunduğunu söyleyebiliriz. Bu bağlamda önceki Başbakan Theresa May'in 2017 yılında Türkiye'ye gerçekleştirdiği ziyarette Türk Havacılık ve Uzay Sanayii (TUSAŞ) ile İngiliz savunma şirketi BAE Systems arasında savaş uçağı geliştirilmesi için birlikte çalışma kararı alınmışsa da çeşitli sorunlardan ötürü bu projede ilerleme sağlanamadı. Haliyle önümüzdeki süreçte iki ülkenin genel olarak savunma sektörü ve özel olarak savaş uçağı ve insansız hava araçları gibi katma değeri yüksek teknolojik projelerde birlikte çalışması iki tarafa da yarar sağlayabilir. Bu da ticaret hacmini yeni sektörlerle çeşitlendirilebilir.
Aynı minvalde Türkiye ile İngiltere'nin sadece karşılıklı mal alım-satımında değil farklı coğrafyalarda yatırım odaklı işbirliğine de gitmesi taraflara önemli kazanımlar sağlayabilir. Örneğin İngiltere'nin yatırım ve kredi finansmanı açısından tecrübesi ile Türkiye'nin tarım, imalat sanayi ve tekstil sektörlerindeki birikimi özellikle Afrika, Latin Amerika ve Güney Asya gibi gelecek vaat eden bölgelerde bir araya gelebilirse iki ülke arasındaki ekonomik işbirliği farklı sahalara da yayılabilir. Özetlemek gerekirse Türkiye ile İngiltere arasında zaten uzun yıllardan beri var olan yüksek ticaret potansiyelinin serbest ticaret anlaşmasının imzalanmasıyla birlikte uygulama safhasına geçtiğini söyleyebiliriz. Burada AB ve Türkiye arasındaki Gümrük Birliği 'nin güncel dinamiklere yanıt verme açısından zayıf kaldığı dikkate alındığında, güncel şartlara uygun şekilde hazırlanan bu anlaşma önümüzdeki süreçte iki ülkeye de kazanç sağlayacak yeni bir zemin oluşturuyor.