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Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Fitch Ratings Direktörü Douglas Winslow, aşılamaların yapılması ve kısıtlamaların azaltılmasıyla birlikte Türkiye ekonomi sinin özellikle yılın ikinci yarısından sonra hız kazanacağını, büyümenin 2021 yılında yüzde 3,5 seviyesinde olmasının beklendiğini belirtti.
Winslow, Türkiye ekonomisinin 2021 yılındaki görünümü ve kredi derecelendirme kuruluşunun beklentilerine ilişin soruları yanıtladı.
Winslow, "Kovid-19 aşılamaları güveni desteklerken, kısıtlamalarını azaltılması, Avrupa'da toparlanmanın ivmelenmesiyle, bu yılın ilk yarısından itibaren Türkiye'de büyümenin hız kazanmasını bekliyoruz. 2021 yılında Türkiye ekonomisinin yüzde 3,5 seviyesinde büyüme göstermesini öngörüyoruz." değerlendirmesinde bulundu.
Türk ekonomi sinin 2020 yılında yüzde 0,2 seviyesinde büyüme gösterdiği tahmininde bulunan Fitch Ratings Direktörü Winslow, Türkiye'ye ilişkin büyüme tahminlerinin 19 Şubat tarihinde ülke not ve görünümüne ilişkin değerlendirme kapsamında ve mart ayında yayımlanacak olan "Küresel Ekonomik Görünüm" raporu çerçevesinde yeniden değerlendirilebileceğini hatırlattı.
TÜRKİYE'DE CARİ AÇIĞIN AZALMASI BEKLENİYOR Winslow, "Reel efektif kur, ki değer kaybı 2020 yılında yüzde 18 seviyesindeydi, Türkiye'nin toplamda ihracattaki rekabeti son yıllarda yardımcı oldu. Turizmin toparlanması, ihracatta talebin artması ve yakın zamanda yapılan politika sıkılaştırmaları, 2020 yılının ilk 11 ayında GSYH'nin yüzde 5,2'si seviyesinde olan cari açığın önümüzdeki dönemde azalmasını sağlayacaktır. 2021 yılında cari açığın GSYH'ye oranının yüzde 3,5, 2021 yılında ise yüzde 2,4'e gerilemesini bekliyoruz." ifadelerini kullandı.
Winslow konuşmasına şöyle devam etti: "Yeni Merkez Bankası Başkanı yönetimindeki kısmen daha Ortodoks politikalar ılımlı sermaye akışlarını cesaretlendirebilir. Bu unsurlar Türkiye'nin dış finansmanının dengelenmesini desteklerken, biz ülkenin büyük dış finansman gereksinimine kıyasla düşük seviyede olan döviz rezervlerinde yakın vadede belirgin bir artış beklemiyoruz."
TCMB'NİN PARA POLİTİKALARI TCMB'nin para politikalarını da değerlendiren Winslow, "Merkez Bankası'nın faiz oranlarını yükseltmesi ve öngörülebilirliği artıran tek fonlama oranı kullanmak konusundaki kararlılığı, parasal politika kredibilitesini artırmak yönünde bir adım. Fakat bunu yeniden inşa etmek zaman alacaktır." ifadelerini kullandı.
Winslow, Fitch'in Türkiye'de enflasyonun 2021 yılı sonunda yüzde 10,5, 2022 yılının sonunda ise yüzde 9,5 seviyesinde gerçekleşmesinin beklendiğini belirtirken uygulanan politika faizinin bu yıl yüzde 13, gelecek yıl ise yüzde 12 olması durumunda, bunun yaklaşık yüzde 2,5 seviyesinde reel faize denk gelmiş olacağını ekledi.
Winslow, "Yaz döneminde kamu bankalarının yüksek seviyedeki kredileri de dahil olmak üzere verilen güçlü politika destekleri, geçen yılın üçüncü çeyreğinde Gayri Safi Yurtiçi Hasıla'nın (GSYH) artmasını sağlarken, teşvikler cari açığı artırarak kısmen Türkiye'nin dış finansmanını zayıflattı." yorumunu yaptı.
NOT VE GÖRÜNÜMÜ ETKİLEYEBİLECEK UNSURLAR Gelecek dönemde Türkiye'nin kredi notu ve görünümünü olumlu yönde etkileyebilecek unsurlara da değinen Winslow, "İlerleyen dönemde enflasyonun sürdürülebilir şekilde azaltılması, parasal politika kredibilitesini yeniden inşa edilmesi pozitif reyting eylemini etkileyebilecek bazı kilit unsurlar arasında yer alıyor. Ya da Türkiye'nin dış finansmanını sürdürülebilirliği konusunda güvenin artması, yerli tasarrufların artırılması, dolarizasyonun azaltılması, büyümenin kredi büyümesine ve dış borçlanmaya daha az bağımlı olması gibi unsurlar."
Öte yandan Winslow, Türkiye'nin ilerleyen dönemde ani dış finansman riskleri karşılaşmasının, dış finansman dengesizlerinin artıracak şekilde politika genişlemesine gitmesinin, kredi büyümesinin sürdürülemeyecek boyutlarda olmasının, bankaların ve şirketlerin dış borçlarını çevirmekte zorlanmasının, Türk lirasına güvenin azalmasının, sermaye çıkışının ve dolarizasyonun artmasının kredi notunun potansiyel olarak düşürülmesine neden olabilecek unsurlar arasında olduğunu belirtti.
OECD 2020 BEKLENTİSİNİ REVİZE ETTİ Ekonomi k İşbirliği ve Kalkınma Örgütü (OECD), Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin 2020 daralma beklentisini yüzde 1,3'ten yüzde 0,2'ye revize etti.
OECD'nin Türkiye hakkında her iki yılda bir hazırlanan "Ekonomik İnceleme Raporu" yayınlandı.
Türkiye'de yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınının ilk dalgasının ardından yaşanan toparlanmanın güçlü olduğuna ancak ekonominin ters rüzgarlarla karşı karşıya olduğuna işaret edilen raporda, salgının ekonomik faaliyet üzerindeki etkisinin bölgedeki diğer ülkelere göre daha sonra ortaya çıktığı ancak keskin olduğu aktarıldı.
SAĞLIK ALTYAPISINA ÖVGÜ Raporda, Türkiye'nin güçlü sağlık altyapısı ve hedefli kısıtlamalar sayesinde Kovid-19 salgınının ilk dalgasında vaka sayılarını etkili bir şekilde kontrol altına almayı başardığı kaydedildi.
Yetkililerin kurumsal likiditeyi, istihdamı ve hane halklarının gelirlerini korumak için bol miktarda mali destek sağladığının hatırlatıldığı raporda, mali politikaların büyük bir kredi genişlemesini teşvik ettiği ifade edildi.
Raporda, Türkiye'nin nispeten mütevazi sosyal güvenlik ağları ve artan kurumsal borçları göz önüne alındığında, Kovid-19 krizinden tam bir toparlanmanın sağlanmasının zaman alacağının beklendiği belirtildi.
Türkiye'nin Kovid-19 krizine sağlam kamu maliyesiyle girdiğine işaret edilen raporda, salgının para politikası zorluklarını artırdığı aktarıldı. Raporda, "Ekonominin girişimci gücü, zorlu makro ekonomik koşullar ve bölgesel jeopolitik gerilimler altında bile dikkati çekicidir." değerlendirmesinde bulunuldu.
Salgının üretken sektörlerdeki finansal baskıları artırdığının altı çizilen raporda, Türk firmalarının ileri dijital teknolojileri benimsemede geride kaldığı uyarısında da bulunuldu.
BÜYÜME TAHMİNİ, 2021 İÇİN AŞAĞI, 2022 İÇİN YUKARI YÖNLÜ REVİZE EDİLDİ Raporda, Türk ekonomi sine ilişkin beklentilere de yer verildi.
Buna göre, Türkiye ekonomisinin 2020'de yüzde 0,2 küçüleceği, 2021'de yüzde 2,6 ve 2022'de ise yüzde 3,5 büyüyeceği öngörüldü.
OECD, 1 Aralık'ta yayımlanan Geçici Dönem Ekonomik Görünüm Raporu'nda, Türk ekonomisinin 2020'de yüzde 1,3 daralacağını, 2021'de yüzde 2,9 ve 2022'de 3,2 büyüyeceği tahmininde bulunmuştu. Ülkedeki ortalama enflasyonun 2021'de yüzde 12 ve 2022'de ise yüzde 10 olacağı tahmin edildi.
Türkiye'deki işsizlik oranının da 2020'de yüzde 13,2, 2021'de yüzde 13,7 ve 2022'de yüzde 14,5 olacağı öngörüldü.