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Covid-19 pandemisiyle vatandaşlar toplu taşıma yerine arabalara yönelmişti. Ayrıca kamu bankalarının uygun faiz oranlarıyla başlattığı kredi kampanyaları ile ikinci el piyasasında büyük bir arz çoğalışı yaşandı. Normalleşme sürecinin yaşandığı yaz aylarında hem tatil hem de şehirlerarası seyahatler çoğaldığı için ikinci el maliyetlerinde düşüş olmamıştı. Güzde ikinci dalganın tesiriyle tabloda değişimler gözlemlendi. Sahibinden Pazarlamadan Sorumlu Genel Müdür Yardımcısı Nazım Erdoğan ''bunda Kasım ayı ile birlikte sokak kısıtlamalarının başlaması, mesai saatlerinin kademelendirilmesi, kurumların evden çalışma yöntemini giderek yaygınlaştırması önemli rol oynadı'' şeklinde konuştu.
İKİNCİ EL OTOMOBİL FİYATLARI NEDEN DÜŞTÜ?
Sahibinden Pazarlamadan Sorumlu Genel Müdür Yardımcısı Nazım Erdoğan'a göre bunda Kasım ayı ile birlikte sokak kısıtlamalarının başlaması, mesai saatlerinin kademelendirilmesi, kurumların evden çalışma yöntemini giderek yaygınlaştırması önemli rol oynadı.
"Yaz aylarında artan şehirlerarası seyahatlerin de azalmasından kaynaklı, özellikle büyük şehirlerde insan ve araç hareketinin azalması piyasayı ciddi şekilde etkiledi. Bu durum, ikinci el araç piyasasında bir miktar etkisini gösterdi. Diğer taraftan normalleşme sürecinde büyük üreticilerin kapasitelerini yükseltmesi ve sıfır araç arzının artmasıyla beraber, daha aylar öncesinden sıfır araç bekleyen belli bir grup tüketici de ertelenmiş alımları yaparak otomobillerine kavuştu."
Bu faktörlerin bir araya gelmesiyle ikinci el araçlara yönelik talepte bir doygunluk ve ardından düşüş gözlemlemeye başladıklarını söyleyen Erdoğan, "Bu süreç içerisinde otomobil firmaları tarafından geleneksel yıl sonu kampanyalarının devreye girmesi, ikinci araç piyasasında talebin durgun olmasına etki etti" diye konuştu.
2. el fiyatlarında düşüş trendi ise hâlâ devam ediyor. Erdoğan, Aralık 2020'de ilk defa yüzde 1'e yakın düşüş gösteren ortalama ilan fiyatlarının, benzer bir seyir izleyerek son iki ayda yüzde 2'ye yakın gerilediğini belirtiyor. Erdoğan'a göre ilan üzerinden pazarlık yapıldığı da dikkate alındığında satış fiyatlarında daha yüksek oranda düşüş olduğu tahmin ediliyor.
Peki fiyat düşüşleri tüm sınıflarda görülüyor mu, önümüzdeki aylarda daha da düşüş olur mu, şu an ikinci el otomobil almanın zamanı mı?
FİYATLARDAKİ DÜŞÜŞ TÜM SINIFLARI KAPSIYOR MU?
Genel olarak tüm sınıflarda farklı oranlarda düşüşler olduğunu söyleyebiliriz. Kurlardaki düşüşle birlikte bazı araçlarda yüzde 20-25'e ulaşan fiyat değişimleri görüyoruz. İkinci elde en çok düşüşü satış hacmi daha az olan spesifik markalarda görüyoruz. Tüketicinin sık tercih ettiği modellerde de düşüşler daha sınırlı.
KISITLAMALARIN HAFİFLEMESİ FİYATLARI NASIL ETKİLER?
Kısıtlamaların mart ayı gibi hafiflemesiyle piyasadaki canlılık artabilir çünkü pandeminin seyri ve aşıdaki gelişmeler birçok sektörü olduğu gibi otomotiv sektörünü de doğrudan etkiliyor. Araç üretim ve tedarik aşamalarında beklenmeyen durumlar olmaması, son birkaç gündür yukarı yönlü hareketler gösteren döviz fiyatlarının normal seyretmesi halinde, sıfır araç satışlarındaki pozitif seyrin, ikinci eldeki düşüşün devamını sağlayacağını düşünüyorum.
SATIŞLAR NE ZAMAN YÜKSELİR?
Aslında sıfır otomobillerde satış rakamları gayet iyi. ODD verilerine göre ocak ayındaki binek araç satışı geçtiğimiz yılın yaklaşık yüzde 60'ın üzerinde. 2020 yılında sıfır araç tedariğinin sıkıntılı olduğu süreçte ikinci elde ciddi bir talep patlaması yaşanmış, hatta "ikinci el arabalar sıfır fiyatından pahalı satılıyor" serzenişlerini görmüştük. Şu an için ikinci eldeki durgunluğun sebebi, araç sahiplerinin bu düşüşü içselleştirmekte zorlanması. Kurumsal satıcılar fiyatlarını belirli kayıpları göze alarak düşürüyor.
Ancak bireysel satıcılarda bu durumu daha sınırlı görüyoruz. Dolayısıyla 2020 modelleri de kapsayan sıfır araç kampanyalarının sona ermesi, bireysel alıcı ve satıcıların mevcut fiyat seviyelerini kabullenmesi ile tekrar satışların normalleşmesi mümkün olur. Bunu mart ayı ile birlikte yavaş yavaş görebiliriz. Tabii son birkaç gündür dövizdeki hareketlilik de buradaki hikâyeyi farklılaştırabilir.
İKİNCİ EL YATIRIM ARACI OLARAK GÖRÜLÜYORDU, BU HALA GEÇERLİ Mİ?
Son bir iki yıldır ikinci el otomobiller yatırımdan ziyade, 'ticaret aracı' olarak bir emtia gibi görülebiliyor. Farklı meslek gruplarındaki esnafın veya bireylerin al-sat yaparak kazanç sağlamaya çalıştığını görmekteyiz. Geçtiğimiz yıl ikinci eldeki rakamlarda bunun da etkisi büyüktü.
FİYATLARI MANİPÜLE ETMEK MÜMKÜN MÜ? VATANDAŞ NELERE DİKKAT ETMELİ?
Biz bir aracın eder fiyatını bulduğunda, alıcının o aracı satın almaya ikna olduğunu düşünüyoruz. Bence tüketiciler almak istediği bir aracı, sıfır araç fiyatlarına, ikinci el piyasasındaki dinamiklere ve ekonomik gelişmelere bakarak çok iyi değerleyebiliyor. Bu açıdan ilanlarda manipülatif diyebileceğimiz fiyatlar yer alsa bile, bunların alıcılar nezdinde pek karşılık bulduğunu düşünmüyorum. Zira tüketiciler sıfır araç fiyatlarını da sorgulamakta ve buna göre bir ikinci el değerlemesi yapmaktalar. Geçtiğimiz yıl bu düşüncenin oluşmasına sebep olan temel husus, sanıyorum sıfır araçların bayiden alınarak spot piyasasına sürülmesi ve bu nedenle "bazı ikinci el modellerin fiyatları sıfırından pahalı" yorumlarının yapılmasıydı.
ARAÇ ALMAYI DÜŞÜNENLER NELER YAPMALI?
Fiyat düşüşünün şu an uygun bir alım ortamı yarattığını söylemek mümkün. Zira ikinci el araca olan talep ve hacim düşmüş durumda. Alıcıların pazarlık gücünün bu açıdan daha fazla olduğunu söyleyebiliriz.
İKİNCİ EL OTOMOBİL ALACAKLAR DİKKAT! FİYATLAR YÜZDE 20 DÜŞTÜ
Sıfır otomobil marklarının yaptığı kampanyalar sayesinde satışlar hızla yükselişe geçti. Otomobil pazarı ilk iki ayda 102 binden fazla satış rakamına ulaştı. İkinci el araç pazarında yaşanan durgunluk fiyatlarda yüzde 20'lik düşüş yaşandı. İkinci el otomobil pazarında talep artışına bağlı olarak fiyatların da yukarı yönlü hareket edebileceğini gösteriyor.
2021'in ilk çeyreğinde trendin sıfır araçlara kaydığını ifade eden Hüsamettin Yalçın, ''İkinci elde ise bugüne kadar gelen süreçte şunlar yaşandı; 1 Ocak 2020'de 100 bin TL olan bir otomobil, 15 Kasım 2020'ye gelindiğinde 185 bin TL'ye çıktı. Bu tarihten Mart 2021'e kadar olan süreçte ise fiyatlar ortalama yüzde 20 geriledi. Bunun en büyük sebebi talebin azalması. Biz şu anda havaların ısınması, pandemi kısıtlamalarının gevşemesi, aşılamanın artması ve tatil planlarının başlaması nedeniyle ikinci elde talebin yeniden yükselişe geçmesini bekliyoruz. Tüketiciler açısından şu an içerisinde bulunduğumuz dönemin ikinci el araç almak için en doğru zaman olduğunu söyleyebilirim. Avantajlı bir dönem olması bakımından, şimdi ikinci el araç almanın tam zamanı'' diye konuştu.
2021 yılı sıfır araç pazarı açısından oldukça hareketli başlarken, ikinci el araç pazarı yıla bir o kadar durgun başladı. Güncel veriler ışığında pazarı değerlendiren, otomotiv sektörünün en büyük veri ve ikinci el fiyatlandırma şirketi Cardata'nın Genel Müdürü Hüsamettin Yalçın, ''Yılın ilk iki ayında gerçekleşen rakamlar trendin sıfır araçlara doğru kaydığının göstergesi. Ancak, bu noktada dikkat edilmesi gereken birkaç unsur var. İkinci elde bugüne kadar gelen süreçte şunlar yaşandı; 1 Ocak 2020'de 100 bin TL olan bir otomobil, 15 Kasım 2020'ye gelindiğinde 185 bin TL'ye çıktı. Bu tarihten Mart 2021'e kadar olan süreçte ise fiyatlar ortalama yüzde 20 geriledi.
Bunun en büyük sebebi talebin azalması. Bu noktada, havaların ısınması, pandemi kısıtlamalarının gevşemesi, aşılamanın artması ve tatil planlarının başlaması nedeniyle ikinci elde talebin yeniden yükselişe geçmesini bekliyoruz. Tüketiciler açısından şu an içerisinde bulunduğumuz dönemin ikinci el araç almak için en doğru zaman olduğunu söyleyebilirim. Avantajlı bir dönem olması bakımından, şimdi ikinci el araç almanın tam zamanı'' dedi.
''Araç talebi sürüyor, pazar tahminimiz 850 bin adet civarı''
Değerlendirmesinde sıfır araç pazarıyla ilgili olarak da bilgiler veren Cardata Genel Müdürü Hüsamettin Yalçın, "Tedarik sorununun ortadan kalkması Ocak ve Şubat ayında otomotiv satışlarının oldukça yüksek seyretmesini sağladı. Diğer yandan, Türkiye'deki sürücülerin araç alma iştahı halen devam ediyor. Pandeminin getirdiği bireysel mobilite ihtiyacı bu yönde devam ediyor. Bu kapsamda, Mart ayında da pazarın 50 bin adedin altına düşeceğini düşünmüyorum. Yaşanan gelişmeler otomotiv sektörü açısından oldukça umut verici. Türkiye otomotiv pazarında her an her şey değişebiliyor ancak bugünden yarına baktığımız zaman, geçen sene 770 bin adet bandında kapanan pazarın yüzde 10-15 yükseleceğini öngörüyoruz. Yani 2021 yılında iç pazarın 850 bin adetlerde kapanmasını tahmin ediyoruz" ifadelerini kullandı.
KAYNAK: Hürriyet