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Türkiye 'nin büyüme, yatırım ve ihraç kalemleri rekor kırarken döviz kur unun olağandışı yükselmesi kamuoyunca tepki çekti. Takvim gazetesi Ekonomi Müdürü Faruk Erdem , Batı tarafından Türkiye'ye karşı gerçekleştirilen kur saldırısını değerlendirdi.
Erdem'in açıklamaları şöyle:
"BİR ŞEYLER KÖTÜ GİDİYORSA BORSA NİYE YÜKSELİYOR"
"Borsa'da yükseliş devam ediyor. 'Bir şeyler kötü gidiyorsa Borsa niye yükseliyor' diyebilirsin. Şirketlerin karlılıkları devam ediyor. Bilançoları iyi geliyor. Yabancı yatırımcıların şirketlerimize ve ekonomiye olan güveni devam ediyor. Burada zaman zaman kar satışları geliyor. Dikkat etmek lazım. Burada '1730 seviyesi teknik olarak önemli' diyor uzmanlar.
"YÜZDE 30'UN ÜZERİNDE BİR KÖPÜK VAR"
Yeniden 13 seviyesine geldi dolar . Burada yüzde 30'un üzerinde bir köpük var. Merkez Bankası da açıkladı. Altında hiçbir iktisadi temel olmayan bir yükseliş söz konusu. Bakıyorsunuz makro iktisadi bütün veriler olumlu. Nedir? Türkiye çift haneli büyüyecek. İhracatta rekorlar var. Sanayi üretimi aynen devam ediyor. Ticarette turizmde birçok sektörde hareketlilik devam ediyor. Ama nedense kur üzerinden ekonomiyi okuma ve orada oyun oynanıyor.
94 VEYA 2001'DEKİ TÜRKİYE DEĞİLİZ
Bakın 94 yılında da kur da böyle bir hareket olmuştu. Ama o zaman baktığınız zaman 94 yılındaki ekonominin durumuna; cari açık inanılmaz boyuta gelmiş, borçluluk çok yükselmiş, ülkede ekonomi dengeleri tamamen bozulmuştu. Bir benzer durumda 2001 yılında olmuştu. Orada da bakıyorsunuz. Bütün finans sistemi çökmüş ülkenin bütün ekonomik temelleri ve göstergeleri bozulmuş. Şimdi bakıyorsunuz. Türkiye çift haneli büyümeye gidiyor. Pandemi dönemini en az hasarla atlatmış bir ülke. Bütün makro dengeler bütün rakamlar olumluyken kurda yüzde 30'luk bir köpük oluşturuldu.
SOSYAL MEDYA ALGISI: GAZ VERİLİYOR
Sosyal medya da üzüldüğüm iki nokta var. Birincisi şu; sosyal medyada ciddi bir algı oluşturuluyor. Ve bu algıyla insanlar gidip paralarını buraya yatırmaya başladılar. Bakın bankacılarla konuşuyorum. 12 liradan 13 liradan dolar almaya çalışan insanlar varmış. Yani yapmayın gözünüzü seveyim. Sonra çok üzüleceksiniz. Buradaki bu köpük kaybolduğu zaman 'ne yaptım' diyeceksiniz. Bu gazla o hareketi yapan insanlar var. Gaz veriliyor, 'şu olacak bu olacak. Yatır paranı' diye. Dolayısıyla döviz tevdiat hesapları çözülmüyor. Yükseldiği halde...
MUHALEFET SALDIRIDAN DOLAYI ZEVKTEN DÖRT KÖŞE!
İkinci üzüldüğüm şey de şu; bu ülkede paramızın değeri düşüyor diye zil takıp oynayan insanlar var. Sadece sosyal medya dan da değil. Televizyonlarda gazetelerde. 'Ben buradan iktidar devşiririm' derdinde olan insanlar var. Senin ülkenin parasının değeri düşüyor niye zil takıp oynuyorsun. O insanların isimleri de seninle benimle aynı işte. Aynı gökyüzünde yaşıyoruz.
"BU ÜLKENİN KAYNAKLARINI YÜKSEK FAİZLERLE SÖMÜRMÜŞLER"
Şu hedefleniyor aslında. Bugüne kadar bizi hep yüksek kur , yüksek faiz , yüksek enflasyon cenderesi içerisine almışlar. Bu ülkenin kaynaklarını yüksek faizlerle sömürmüşler. Şimdi rahatsızlık ordan. 'Biz niye sömüremeyeceğiz artık'. 'Niye faizi indiriyorsunuz?' diye bas bas bağırıyorlar televizyonlarda görüyorsunuz.
FAİZ YÜKSEKKEN DE KUR DÜŞMÜYORDU
Faiz i yüksek tuttuğumuz zamanlarda bundan 6-7 ay önce faiz yüzde 19'lardaydı. Kur düşüyor muydu? Yine kur yüksekti. Demekki yüksek faiz ne kuru düşürüyor ne de enflasyonu düşürmek için tek başına bir sebep.
"BU ÜLKEYE SÜREKLİ SICAK PARA GELMESİYLE KURUN AŞAĞIYA ÇEKİLMESİ OYUNUNU İSTEMİYORUZ"
O zaman ne diyor Türkiye ; 'Ben sizin kur duğunuz bu oyunu istemiyorum. Ne yapacağım? Büyüyeceğim. Ne yapacağım? Üreteceğim. Ne yapacağım? Yatırım yapacağım. Ne yapacağım? İstihdam sağlayacağım. Benim üretime yatırıma istihdama ihtiyacım var.' Bu ülkenin büyümeye ihtiyacı var. 'Bu ülkeye sürekli sıcak para gelmesiyle kurun aşağıya çekilmesi oyununu istemiyorum' diyor Türkiye.
YABANCI YATIRIMCI TÜRKİYE'Yİ BÖYLE SÖMÜRÜYOR
Bir miktar geliyordu sıcak para dışarıdan. Bir miktar geliyordu. O para geliyor da burada fabrika kur up sana bana iş vermiyor. Ne yapıyor? Borsa'ya giriyor, faiz e giriyor. Kazanıyor senin benim kaynağımı sonra alıp götürüyor. Adam geliyor yüksek kurdan dolar ını bozduruyor. Borsa'ya giriyor. Borsa'dan çıktığı zaman tekrar dolar alıyor düşükten. Hem Borsa'dan kazanıyor. Hem faizden kazanıyor. Hem kurdan kazanıyor. Böyle bir döngü var.
PANDEMİDEN ÖNCE BU DÖNGÜ KIRILDI
Dolayısıyla bu döngüyü kırdılar. Pandemiden önce başlamıştı bu kırma işi. 'Biz bildiğimiz yolda bu mücadelede devam edeceğiz' diyor Sayın Cumhurbaşkanı. Bizim de vatandaş olarak buna destek olmamız lazım."
İSVİÇRE KÖKENLİ EKONOMİST: TÜRKİYE'DE BÜYÜME VAR
İsviçre kökenli ekonomist Charles-Henry Monchau, Türkiye 'nin büyüme yanlısı bir ilerleme istediğini kaydederek, "Görünüşe göre yetkililer büyüme yanlısı bir gündemle ilerlemek istiyorlar. O yüzden faizleri indiriyorlar. Evet aslında Türkiye'de büyüme var " ifadelerini kullandı.
Monchau, doların güçlü olduğu dönemlerin küresel piyasalarda bir risk durumu oluşturduğunu ifade ederken şunları söyledi:
"Sanıyorum ki geçen hafta yaşaşan şey piyasaları şaşırttı, şok ortamı yarattı. Türk Lirası nın da tepki verdiği gördük. Görünüşe göre yetkililer büyüme yanlısı bir gündemle ilerlemek istiyorlar. O yüzden faiz leri indiriyorlar. Evet aslında Türkiye 'de büyüme var.
"DEĞER KAYBI YAŞAMASI BİR RİSK"
Bu yıl yüzde 9'luk bir büyümeden bahsediyoruz. İhracat, turizm çok iyi bir iş çıkarıyor ancak Türk Lirası nın bu kadar değer kaybı yaşaması bir risk. Çünkü dış finansal ihtiyacı var. Bu da bir risk yaratıyor.
"BU DURUM SADECE TL İLE ALAKALI DEĞİL"
Uzun vadede Türkiye 'nin temelleri çok güçlü. Yüksek büyümenin yaşandığı bir ekonomi; ancak şunun altını çizmek istiyorum. Aslında bu durum sadece Türk Lirası ile alakalı bir durum değil.
Şu an dolar ın çok güçlü olduğu bir noktadayız. Euro karşısında yıl başından bu yana yüzde 8 gibi bir büyüme kazandı. Farklı gelişen piyasalarda gerileme olduğunu görüyoruz.
"BU KÜRESEL BİR RİSK..."
Sadece Türkiye değil, Brezilya veya Polonya'ya da bakabilirsiniz. Çünkü ne zaman güçlü dolar olursa bu yaşanır. Bu küresel bir risk olur piyasalar için sadece Türkiye ile alakalı bir durum değil. Bu küresel bir risk durumudur şu an."
SAHTE YÜKSELİŞ VAR
Uluslararası Finans Enstitüsü (IIF ) Başekonomisti Robin Brooks sosyal medya hesabından yaptığı grafikli paylaşımda, Türk Lirası 'na karşı nasıl bir manipülasyon yapıldığını gözler önüne serdi.
"TL YÜZDE 30 DAHA DEĞERLİ"
Brooks'un paylaşımı yaptığı sırada 1 Dolar 12.30 TL'ye tekabül ederken, Brooks, TL'nin aslında yüzde 30 daha değerli olduğunu ifade etti.
Ekonomist yaptığı paylaşımda şu an piyasa koşulları arasında TL'nin, Dolar karşısında 9 lira 50 kur uş civarında adil değerinin olduğunu vurguladı.
MANİPÜLASYONU GÖZLER ÖNÜNE SERDİ
Yani Brooks yaptığı paylaşımda, aslında Türk Lirası 'nın şu anki durumdan yüzde 30 daha değerli olduğunu aktardı. Grafikli paylaşımda değerlemenin Mayıs 2021'den itibaren hızlı bir şekilde yukarı çıktığını ifade etti. Bu durum ise TL üzerinde oluşturulan manipülasyonu gözler önüne seriyor.