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Türkiye'de önde gelen kurumları tarafından hazırlanan strateji raporlarında, 2022'de küresel çapta yüksek enflasyon ve oynaklık temasının süreceği belirtilerek yatırım cılara "temkinli ve tetikte" olunması gerektiği mesajı verilirken, borsa da yükselişin sürebileceği öngörülüyor.
Yeni tip koronavirüs (Kovid-19) salgınının etkilerinin devam ettiği 2021 yılında, bir yandan artan enflasyonist baskılar bir yandan da salgında ortaya çıkan yeni varyantlar neticesinde büyümeye yönelik kaygılar, merkez bankalarını para politikaları konusunda çıkmaza sürükledi.
Böylesi zorlu bir ortamda yatırım cı algısına yön vermeye çalışan merkez bankalarının sözle yönlendirmeleri "şahin" ve "güvercin" arasında gidip gelirken, belirsizlikleri azaltmada her ne kadar önemli bir rol üstlense de fiyatlamalardaki oynaklık dikkate alındığında öngörülebilir bir ortamın oluşturulmasında yetersiz kaldı.
Özellikle yüksek enflasyon konusunda yapılan "geçici" değerlendirmelerinin "beklenenden daha uzun süreli"ye evrilme sürecinde, merkez bankaları sıkı para politikalarına geçişte kademeli bir yol izleneceği ve piyasanın önceden bilgilendirileceğine dair net mesajlar verse de 2022 itibarıyla gelinen noktada daha hızlı ve sert bir dönemin ilk sinyalleri alındı.
Bu gelişmeler paralelinde 2022'ye dair üretilen strateji raporlarında da uzun yerine kısa vadeli tahminler yapıldığı, makro verilere yönelik öngörülere yer verilmediği dikkati çekerken, yıl geneline dair kullanılan başlıklar "bir şey değişir, her şey değişir" tabirinin desteklediği belirsizliklere işaret ediyor. Bu durum, yatırım cıları temkinli ve her an tetikte olunması gereken bir yılın beklediğini teyit ediyor.
"HER ŞEYİN OLABİLECEĞİ BİR YIL" Garanti BBVA Yatırım ekibi tarafından hazırlanan strateji raporunda, 2022 için "Her şeyin olabileceği bir yıl" nitelendirmesi yapılırken, birçok farklı senaryonun gündeme gelme olasılığının yüksek olması nedeniyle yıl sonu tahminleri üretilmediği, ilk 3 aya odaklanılarak daha kısa aralıklarla yatırımcıların bilgilendirileceği belirtildi.
Tüm dünyada 2022'nin ana konusunun enflasyon olacağı vurgulanan raporda, "Salgının en yoğun döneminde üretim ve lojistik sorunları nedeniyle tüm ekonomilerde arz kaynaklı enflasyon görülürken, toparlanmayla birlikte bu kez talep enflasyonu kendini hissettirmeye başladı. Parasal otoriteler bu tehdide parasal gevşemeyi kesip, faiz artırarak tepki vermeye başladı. 2022'de dünya piyasalarının yönünü bu uygulamaların zamanlaması ve şiddeti belirleyecek. Gelişmiş ülkelerin parasal sıkılaştırmaya gittiği bir dünyada gelişmekte olan ülkelerin çok farklı bir yön izlemeleri beklenemez. Bu nedenle 2022'de ABD Merkez Bankası'nın (Fed) hamlelerine bağlı olarak birçok gelişen ülkede de benzer hareketler görmeye devam edeceğiz." değerlendirmeleri yapıldı.
Raporda, dünya ekonomisi böyle bir döneme girerken Türkiye ekonomisinde farklı bir hikayenin izlendiğine işaret edilerek, şunlar kaydedildi:
"Geleneksel politikalardan farklı yöntemler uygulanan ülkemizde henüz makro dengelerin de piyasalardaki oynaklığın da tam olarak oturmadığını görüyoruz. Yeni ekonomik model ile cari fazla veren bir ekonomi olmayı amaçlayan Türkiye'de bundan sonraki süreçte politika faizinin enflasyonun altında tutulmaya devam edileceğini düşünüyoruz. TL'nin değerlenmekte zorlanacağı böyle bir ortamda Merkez Bankasının zaman zaman müdahalelerle kurları dengelemeyi denediğini göreceğiz, ancak sınırlı bir rezervle bunu sürdürmek güç olacağı için kur korumalı mevduat, kurumsal yatırımcılara forward döviz kuru verilmesi, enflasyona endeksli mevduat/tahvil gibi ürünlerin çeşitlendirilmesi ile yerli yatırımcının döviz talebinin kontrol altında tutulmasına çaba sarf edilecek."
TL yatırım cıları açısından 2022'nin gözdesinin yine Borsa İstanbul olacağı aktarılan raporda, "İhracata çalışan, döviz pozisyonu taşıyan, döviz maliyeti olsa bile bunu satış fiyatına yansıtma gücüne sahip şirketler bu yıl gene hareketli olacak. 2022'nin geçen yıldan bir farkı, bu kez yüksek enflasyon ortamında olmamız. Bu nedenle nakit pozisyonunu ve borçlarını iyi yöneten şirketlerin de öne çıktığını göreceğiz." denildi.
Raporda, olumlu fiyatlamalarda BIST 100 endeksi için yükselişlerin 2.140-2.170 ve 2.300-2.400 seviyelerine doğru sürebileceği ifade edilerek, geri çekilmelerin ise 1.900-1.700 bandında alım fırsatı verebileceği bildirildi.
"YÜKSEK VOLATİLİTE İLE NORMALE DÖNÜŞ ÇABALARI" Deniz Yatırım Araştırma tarafından hazırlanan Strateji Raporu'nda da 2022 yılı için "yüksek volatilite ile normale dönüş çabaları" tanımlaması yapıldı.
Küresel toparlanmanın daha az destekleyici koşullarla önceki yıla kıyasla daha düşük, ancak pozitif patikada devam edeceği aktarılan raporda, yüksek enflasyon ortamının da 2022 geneline hakim olacağı dile getirildi.
Raporda, belirsizlik ortamının, yıl boyunca yatırım kararlarını alma aşamasında yüksek oynaklık destekli güçlükler çıkaracağı ifade edilerek, şu değerlendirmelere yer verildi:
"2022'de 4 başlık etrafında yatırımcı davranışlarının oluşmasını bekleriz: yüksek faiz hadleri, Fed'in tetikleyici olma rolü, getiri arayışının rotasyonu desteklemesi ve arz-talep normalleşmesi. Buna göre, yıl genelinde global çapta nominal ve reel faiz hadlerinin yükseleceği kanaatindeyiz. Fed'in kasım ayından bu yana yaptığı kuvvetli iletişim destekli farklı yönlendirmeleri, para politikalarında normalleşme aşamasına geçildiği işareti veriyor. Varlık alımlarındaki aylık azaltımların devreye alınmasıyla başlatılan süreç, yılın ilk çeyreğinde daha hızlı bir yaklaşımla mart ayı ortasında tamamlanacak. Devamında ise ilk faiz artışı ve bilançonun daraltılması eylemleri görülecek. Söz konusu gelişmeler Fed'in diğer ülkeler nezdinde de para politikalarının yeniden gözden geçirilmesi riski yaratması anlamına geliyor. Getiri arayışlarının ise devam edeceği düşüncesindeyiz. Salgından çıkış sürecini takiben görülen büyüme temalı hisse senetlerinden, değer eksenli gruba geçişin hız kazanacağına inanıyoruz."
Borsa İstanbul için ana belirleyici unsurun, getiri arayışı teması olacağı vurgulanan raporda, "Makro tahminlerimizde ve risksiz faiz oranımızda yaptığımız güncellemeler neticesinde 12 ay vadeli BIST 100 endeksi hedef fiyatımızı 2.750 puan seviyesinde belirliyoruz. Son kapanış düzeyi gözetildiğinde yüzde 37 yükseliş potansiyeline işaret etmekte. Özellikle temettü verimi yüksek hisse senetlerinin yanı sıra konvansiyonel ve yeşil enerji grubu hisselerin ön planda olmasını bekliyoruz." ifadeleri kullanıldı.
"DÜNYADA NORMALLEŞMEYE, TÜRKİYE'DE HETERODOKS POLİTİKALARA DÖNÜŞ" Gedik Yatırım tarafından "Dünyada Normalleşmeye, Türkiye'de Heterodoks Politikalara Dönüş" başlığı altında hazırlanan 2022 Strateji Raporu'nda ise dünya ekonomisinde salgın dönemindeki olağan dışı politikalardan normalleşmeye geçildiğine işaret edildi.
Küresel ekonominin bu yıl 2021'e nazaran yavaşlasa da tarihsel ortalamanın üzerinde büyümesinin beklendiği aktarılan raporda, "Küresel tedarik zincirlerindeki aksaklıkların devam etmekle beraber hafiflemesini, arz-talep dengesizliklerinin azalmasıyla küresel enflasyonun ikinci yarıda düşüşe geçmesini bekliyoruz." değerlendirmesi yapıldı.
Raporda, bu ılımlı beklentilere karşın ABD'de enflasyonun uzun vadeli hedeflerin üzerinde kalmaya devam edebileceği, buna bağlı olarak da Fed'in piyasa beklentilerinden daha fazla şahinleşebileceği vurgulanarak, şunlar kaydedildi:
"Bu durum, küresel piyasalarda bir süreliğine sert fiyatlamalara yol açsa da Fed'in piyasalarla iletişimini önceki yıllarda olduğu gibi uyumlu bir şekilde yürütmesi sayesinde, satışların uzun soluklu bir trende dönüşmeyeceğini öngörüyoruz. Ilımlı olarak nitelendirebileceğimiz bu makro senaryoya ilişkin önemli risk unsurları da bulunuyor. Öncelikle, yeni virüs varyantları ya da Çin'in sıfır Kovid-19 politikasına bağlı kalması sonucunda tedarik zincirlerindeki aksaklıkların devam etmesiyle, küresel ticaretin ve enflasyonun olumsuz etkilenmesi en önemli risk unsuru olabilir. Salgın döneminde arka plana atılan ABD-Çin hegemonya mücadelesinin, her iki ülkedeki seçim atmosferleri de dikkate alındığında 2022'de yeniden ön plana çıkarak finansal piyasalarda dalgalanmalara yol açabileceğini düşünüyoruz. Ukrayna konusu başta olmak üzere, Rusya ile ABD ve AB arasındaki gerginlikler, özellikle enerji fiyatları üzerinden küresel ekonomi üzerinde önemli etkilere neden olabilir."
Türk hisse senetlerinin ucuz kaldığına işaret edilen raporda, "Risk primindeki belirsizlikler hisse senetlerinin potansiyel değerine ulaşmasını engellemeye devam ediyor. Bu yıl için BIST 100 hedefimiz ise yüzde 30'luk yükselme potansiyeliyle 2,625 puan seviyelerinde." denildi.