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Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası (TCMB) Para Politikası Kurulu, politika faizi olan bir hafta vadeli repo ihale faiz oranını yüzde 14'te sabit bıraktı.
TCMB'den faiz oranlarına ilişkin yapılan duyuruda, Merkez Bankası Başkanı Şahap Kavcıoğlu başkanlığında toplanan Para Politikası Kurulu'nun, politika faizinin yüzde 14'te sabit tutulmasına karar verdiği bildirildi.
Duyuruda, etkisi artarak sürmekte olan jeopolitik risklerin yılın ilk yarısında olumsuz yönde gerçekleştiği, dünyada iktisadi faaliyetin zayıflamasına sebep olduğu belirtildi.
Gelecek döneme ilişkin küresel büyüme tahminlerinin aşağı yönlü güncellenmeye devam edildiği ve resesyon ihtimalinin arttığı aktarılan duyuruda, şu değerlendirmelere yer verildi:
"Küresel gıda güvenliğindeki ticaret yasakları ile artan belirsizlikler, emtia fiyatlarındaki yüksek ve oynak seyir ile temel gıda başta olmak üzere bazı sektörlerdeki arz kısıtlarının sürmesi uluslararası ölçekte üretici ve tüketici fiyatlarının artmasına yol açmaktadır. Yüksek küresel enflasyonun, enflasyon beklentileri ve uluslararası finansal piyasalar üzerindeki etkileri yakından izlenmektedir.
Bununla birlikte, gelişmiş ülke merkez bankaları artan enerji fiyatları ve arz-talep uyumsuzluğu ile işgücü piyasalarındaki katılıklara bağlı olarak enflasyonda görülen yükselişin beklenenden uzun sürebileceğini vurgulamaktadırlar. Ülkeler arasında farklılaşan iktisadi görünüme bağlı olarak gelişmiş ülke merkez bankalarının para politikası adım ve iletişimlerinde ayrışma devam etmektedir. Finansal piyasalarda artan belirsizliklere yönelik merkez bankaları tarafından geliştirilen yeni destekleyici uygulama ve araçlarla çözüm üretme gayretlerinin çeşitlenerek arttığı gözlenmektedir."
Duyuruda, yıl başındaki güçlü büyümenin dış talebin de olumlu etkisiyle ikinci çeyrekte de sürdüğü belirtilerek, istihdam kazanımlarının benzer ekonomilere göre daha olumlu seyrettiği kaydedildi.
Büyümenin kompozisyonunda sürdürülebilir bileşenlerin payının arttığı ve cari işlemler dengesinde turizm kaynaklı güçlü iyileşmenin devam ettiği ifade edilen duyuruda, "Bunun yanında, enerji fiyatlarındaki yüksek seyir ve ana ihracat pazarlarının resesyona girme olasılığı cari denge üzerindeki riskleri canlı tutmaktadır." değerlendirmesinde bulunuldu.
Duyuruda, cari işlemler dengesinin sürdürülebilir seviyelerde kalıcı hale gelmesinin fiyat istikrarı için önem arz ettiği kaydedildi.
İvmesini kaybettiği gözlenmekle birlikte, kredilerin büyüme hızı ve erişilen finansman kaynaklarının amacına uygun şekilde iktisadi faaliyet ile buluşmasının yakından takip edildiği aktarılan duyuruda, Kurulun, güçlendirdiği makroihtiyati politika setini kararlılıkla uygulayarak gerekmesi durumunda ilave tedbirleri uygulamaya alacağı bildirildi.
Duyuruda, enflasyonda gözlenen yükselişte, jeopolitik gelişmelerin yol açtığı enerji maliyeti artışları, ekonomik temellerden uzak fiyatlama oluşumlarının etkileri, küresel enerji, gıda ve tarımsal emtia fiyatlarındaki artışların oluşturduğu güçlü negatif arz şoklarının etkili olmaya devam ettiği kaydedildi.
Kurulun, sürdürülebilir fiyat ve finansal istikrarın güçlendirilmesi için atılan ve kararlılıkla uygulanan adımlar ile birlikte, küresel barış ortamının yeniden tesis edilmesiyle dezenflasyonist sürecin başlayacağının öngörüldüğü belirtilen duyuruda, şu değerlendirmelere yer verildi:
"Bu çerçevede kurul, politika faizinin sabit tutulmasına karar vermiştir. Fiyat istikrarının sürdürülebilir bir şekilde kurumsallaşması amacıyla TCMB'nin tüm politika araçlarında kalıcı ve güçlendirilmiş liralaşmayı teşvik eden geniş kapsamlı bir politika çerçevesi gözden geçirme süreci devam etmektedir. Değerlendirme süreçleri tamamlanan kredi, teminat ve likidite politika adımları para politikası aktarım mekanizmasının etkinliğinin güçlendirilmesi için kullanılmaya devam edilecektir."
Duyuruda, TCMB'nin, fiyat istikrarı temel amacı doğrultusunda enflasyonda kalıcı düşüşe işaret eden güçlü göstergeler oluşana ve orta vadeli yüzde 5 hedefine ulaşıncaya kadar elindeki tüm araçları liralaşma stratejisi çerçevesinde kararlılıkla kullanmaya devam edeceği hatırlatıldı.
Fiyatlar genel düzeyinde sağlanacak istikrar, ülke risk primlerindeki düşüş, ters para ikamesinin ve döviz rezervlerindeki artış eğiliminin sürmesi ve finansman maliyetlerinin kalıcı olarak gerilemesi yoluyla makroekonomik istikrar ve finansal istikrarı olumlu etkileyeceği kaydedilen duyuruda, böylelikle, yatırım, üretim ve istihdam artışının sağlıklı ve sürdürülebilir bir şekilde devamı için uygun zemin oluşacağı bildirildi.
Duyuruda, kurulun, kararlarını şeffaf, öngörülebilir ve veri odaklı bir çerçevede almaya devam edeceği belirtilerek, Para Politikası Kurulu toplantı özetinin 5 iş günü içinde yayımlanacağı bildirildi.
KARAR NE ANLAMA GELİYOR? Üçüncü Göz Danışmanlık Yönetim Kurulu Başkanı Hikmet Baydar, A Haber canlı yayınında değerlendirmelerde bulundu. Baydar, "Bence doğru da yaptı. Çünkü şu anki mevcut enflasyonist baskıyı engellemek için faiz tek başına yeterli bir enstrüman değil. Çünkü arzı artırmaya çalışırken bu arzı zaten bir bolluk yaratacağını dolayısıyla bunun da fiyatların seviyesinde aşağı hareket yapabileceğini öngörüyor. Ama tek başına gösterge de etken de o değil. Bir petrol fiyatları bir enerji fiyatları, ara malı hammadde giriş aksaklığı bunların hepsi enflasyonun üzerinde etkili oluyor. Tüm dünyaya baktığımız zaman arz konusunda sıkıntılar var." ifadelerini kullandı.