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OECD , Türkiye ekonomisine yönelik 2022 büyüme tahminini yüzde 3,7'den yüzde 5,4'e yükseltti. Örgüt, haziranda yüzde 3 olarak açıkladığı küresel ekonomide 2022 yılı için büyüme tahminini korudu.
ENFLASYON TAHMİNİNDE AŞAĞI YÖNLÜ REVİZE OECD bugün yayınladığı "Ekonomik Görünüm" raporunda, Türkiye için 2022 yılı GSYH büyüme tahmini yüzde 3,7'den yüzde 5,4'e çıkarıldı. 2023 yılı için tahmin ise yüzde 3,0 olarak bırakıldı.
OECD, tüketici enflasyonu için 2022 yılı tahminini aşağı yönlü revize etti. Buna göre, bu yıl için ortalama tüketici fiyatları tahmini yüzde 72,0'den yüzde 71,0'e çekildi.
Manşet enflasyona paralel olarak çekirdek enflasyon tahminlerinde de revizyona gidildi. 2022 yılı için gıda ve enerji hariç tüketici fiyatları beklentisi yüzde 58,9'dan yüzde 56,1'e çekildi.
DÜNYA SAVAŞIN BEDELİNİ ÖDÜYOR OECD , küresel ekonominin Rusya 'nın Ukrayna 'ya saldırısı ile başlayan savaşın bedelini ödemekte olduğunu ve bu bedelin 2023 yılında daha fazla hissedileceğini bildirdi.
KÜRESEL BÜYÜMEDE ZORLU TABLO Bugün yayınladığı ara dönem "Ekonomik Görünüm" raporunda savaşın sonucu olarak enerji ve gıda fiyatlarının önemli oranda arttığını, enflasyonist baskıların arttığını belirten OECD, küresel büyüme için 2022 tahminini korurken, 2023 beklentisini aşağı yönlü revize etti.
2022 yılı için küresel büyüme tahminini yüzde 3,0 olarak koruyan OECD, 2023 yılı için büyüme beklentisini yüzde 2,8'den yüzde 2,2'ye çekti.
2023 yılında reel küresel gelirlerin bir yıl önce beklenene göre 2,8 trilyon dolar civarında daha düşük olacağını öngören OECD , satın alma paritesi dikkate alındığından düşüşün GSYH'nın yüzde 2'sinin hemen üzerinde olacağını da vurguladı.
ENFLASYON YAYGIN HALE GELDİ OECD , "Enflasyon pek çok ülkede genele yaygın hale geldi. Daha sıkı para politikaları ve gevşeyen arz darboğazları gelecek yıl enflasyon baskılarını hafifletecek, ancak yüksek enerji fiyatları ve yüksek işçilik maliyekleri büyük olasılıkla enflasyondaki bu düşüşün hızını yavaşlatacak" değerlendirmesini yaptı.
G20'DE ENFLASYON GERİLİYOR OECD , manşet enflasyonun G20 ekonomilerinde 2022 'de yüzde 8,2 olacağını ve 2023 yılında bu oranın yüzde 6,5'e gerileyeceğini tahmin etti. Gelişmiş G20 ekonomilerinde ise enflasyonun bu yıl yüzde 6,2 olması ve 2023'te yüzde 4'e gerilemesi bekleniyor.
Yapılan projeksiyonlar yönelik belirsizliğin ciddi seviyede olduğunu vurgulayan OECD, "Daha ağır yakıt yetersizlikleri, öellikle gaz, Avrupa'da 2023 lılında büyümeyi yüzde 1,25 daha azaltabilir ve küresel büyüme yüzde 0,5 düşübilir. Avrupa'da enflasyon 1,5 puan daha yukarı çıkabilir" değerlendirmesini de yaptı.
OECD raporunda G20 için 2022 GSYH büyüme tahmini yüzde 2,9'dan 2,8'e revize edilirken, 2023 büyüme tahmini yüzde 2,8'den yüzde 2,2'ye indirildi.
ALMAN EKONOMİSİ DARALIYOR Euro Bölgesi ekonomisi için 2022 büyüme tanminini yüzde 3,6'dan yüzde 3,1'e çeken OECD , Almanya için büyame beklentisini yüzde 1,9'dan yüzde 1,2'ye, Fransa için yüzde 2,8'den 2,6'ya ve İtaya için yüzde 4,3'ten yüzde 3,4'e çekti.
2023 yılı için beklentilerinde ise Euro Bölgesi için büyüme beklentisini yüzde 1,6'dan yüzde 0,3'e düşüren OECD, Alman ekonomisinin yüzde 0,7 daralacağını, Fransa ve İtalya'da büyüme oranlarının sırasıyla yüde 0,6 ve 0,4 olacağını öngördü.
RUSYA EKONOMİSİNE AĞIR DARBE ABD ekonomisi için 2022 büyüme beklentisini yüzde 2,5'ten 1,5'e çeken OECD , 2023 büyüke beklentisini de yüzde 1,2'den yüzde 0,5'e düşürdü.
Rusya ekonomisinin bu yıl yüzde 5,5 daralacağını tahmin eden OECD, 2023 yılında da yüzde 4,5 daralma olacağını öngördü.
OECD, Çin için 2022 büyüme tahminini yüzde 4,4'ten 3,2'ye indiriknen, 2023 büyüme tahminini de yüzde 4,9'den 4,7'ye çekti.