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Kahramanmaraş merkezli 7.7 ve 7.6 büyüklüğündeki iki deprem binlerce yurttaşın hayatını kaybetmesine, on binlerce yurttaşın da yaralanmasına neden oldu.
Uzmanlara göre, bölge, 1513'ten bu yana stres biriktiren fayları barındırıyordu.
Tarihsel çerçeveden baktığımızda, son birkaç yüzyıl içinde bu fay üzerinde meydana gelen en önemli depremler sırasıyla 1513 Pazarcık, 1822 Maraş , 1866 Karlıova, 1872 Antakya , 1874 Gezin , 1875 Sivrice , 1893 Çelikhan , 1905 Pötürge, 1971 Bingöl, 1977 Palu ve 1986 Sürgü depremleri.
6 Şubat günü meydana gelen ve tüm Türkiye'yi acıya boğan depremin oluşum süreçlerini incelediğimizde, 1114 ve 1513 Maraş Pazarcık depremlerinin anatomisi bizlere önemli ipuçları sunuyor.
Doğu Anadolu fay hattında yaşanan bu gelişmeyi ve 1513 Pazarcık depreminin önemini Gazi Üniversitesi Deprem Araştırma Merkezi Kurucu Başkanı Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal açıkladı.
'MARMARA DEPREMİNİN ON KATI BÜYÜKLÜĞÜNDE BİR DEPREMDİ BU' Hürriyet'te yer alan habere göre, Prof. Dr. Pampal, öncelikle 1513'ten bu yana Pazarcık'ta çok yoğun bir enerji biriktiğini ve bu yoğunlaşmanın depremi tetiklediğini belirtti.
Yüzlerce yıllık birikimin bulunduğu üç fay hattının kesiştiği Sincik-Gölbaşı, Pazarcık'ın olduğu Gölbaşı-Türkoğlu ve Hatay bölgesinde gerçekleşen depremin tarihsel gelişimini değerlendiren Prof. Dr. Pampal şunları ekledi:
"Yüzlerce kilometrelik bir kırık bu. 17 Ağustos Marmara depreminin on katı büyüklüğünde bir depremdi bu. İkinci depremin yaşandığı bölgede Sürgü fayı, Ekinözü , Göksu ve Savrun fayları var. Bunlar birbirinin devamı niteliğinde… İki farklı fay sistemleri bunlar ama birbirlerine çok yakın."
'29 KASIM 1114 PAZAR GÜNÜ YERYÜZÜ ŞİDDETLE SARSILDI'
Prof. Dr. Pampal, depremin anatomisini incelerken özellikle 1513 depreminde yaşananlara ve sonrasındaki enerji birikimine dikkat çekti. Bunun üzerine biz de bundan tam 510 yıl önce meydana gelen Pazarcık depreminde tam olarak ne olduğunu uzmanımıza sorduk.
Bölgede ilk bilinen depremin 1114 yılında Pazarcık'ı içine alan segmentte yaşandığını belirten Prof. Dr. Pampal, bunun ardından irili ufaklı pek çok deprem meydana geldiğini söyledi.
1114 yılındaki Pazarcık depremiyle ilgili 2005 yılında İstanbul Üniversitesi Tarih dergisinde (Sayı 42) yayımlanan Maraş Depremi makalesi, o döneme ilişkin önemli bilgileri barındırıyor.
İstanbul Üniversitesi Edebiyat Fakültesi Tarih Bölümü Ortaçağ Tarihi Anabilim Dalı öğretim üyelerinden Prof. Dr. Muharrem Kesik tarafından kaleme alınan ve Urfalı Mateos'un "Vekayi-nâmesi"nden alıntılanan 1114 Maraş Depremi makalesinde, depremin yaşandığı güne ilişkin çarpıcı ayrıntılara yer veriliyor.
"29 Kasım 1114 Pazar günü sabahın erken saatlerinde Maraş'ta çok büyük bir deprem meydana geldi. Herkesin derin bir uykuda olduğu sırada aniden müthiş bir gürültü koptu ve yeryüzü şiddetle sarsıldı."
URFALI MATEOS ON BİNLERCE KİŞİNİN ÖLDÜĞÜNÜ KAYDETTİ
Urfalı Mateos'tan aktarılan bu bölümün önceki gün yaşanan depremle benzerlikleri dikkat çekiyor. Prof. Dr. Kesik, hikâyeleştirdiği bu anlarda kayaların yarılıp, tepelerin çatladığını ve dağlarla tepelerin, ağaçlar gibi sallandığının görüldüğünü betimliyor.
Bir diğer benzerlik ise insanları ürperten ve yüreklerine korku salan büyük bir çınlamanın ve uğultunun işitilmiş olması. Prof. Dr. Kesik, o günlerde yaşananlara ilişkin şunları ekliyor:
"Bütün bu sesler çok kısa bir süre sonra yerini depremin oluşturduğu enkazın altından gelen insan seslerine bırakmıştı. Ancak kimsenin kimseye yardım elini uzatacak durumu yoktu. Çünkü kaynakların ifadelerine göre, bu deprem ile Maraş şehri tamamen toprak altına gömülmüştü."
Urfalı Mateos'un 1114 Maraş Pazarcık depremine ilişkin gözlemleri ışığında Maraş dolaylarında ciddi can kayıpları olduğu yine makaleye konu ediliyor.
"Urfalı Mateos, bu şehirde yaşayan hiç kimsenin depremden sağ olarak kurtulamadığını ve Maraş'ta yaşayan yaklaşık 40 bin kişinin öldüğünü kaydeder" diyen Prof. Dr. Kesik, Urfalı Mateos'un gözlemlerinde insanların, kendi hayatından ümidi keserek kıyamet gününün geldiğini sandıklarını belirtiyor.
Selçuklu emîrleri için methiyeler kaleme alan Müslüman tarihçi Azîmî ise depremden önce havanın zifiri karanlık olduğunu belirtmiştir.
Prof. Dr. Kesik, 1114 yılında meydana gelen depremden etkilenen civar kentleri ise şu şekilde sıralıyor:
"Deprem Maraş 'ın dışında Elbistan, Sîs (Kozan), Misis (Yüreğir), Keysun (Çakırhüyük), Sümeysat (Samsat), Hisn-ı Mansûr (Adıyaman), Raban (Araban), Urfa, Antakya , Harran, Haleb, Azaz, Esârib, Zerdana ve Bâlis'de de yıkıma yol açtı. Suriye'de de hissedilen deprem hiçbir yerde Maraş'taki kadar büyük tahribat yapmadı. Bundan depremin üssünün Maraş şehri olduğu anlaşılmaktadır."
510 YIL ARADAN SONRA MEYDANA GELEN KIRILMA
1114 depreminin arından 399 yıl sonra meydana gelen 1513 depreminde de büyük yıkım yaşandığını söyleyen Prof. Dr. Pampal, 145 kilometrelik Türkoğlu-Hatay segmentinde 1822 ve 1872 yıllarında da 7.5 büyüklüğünde depremler olduğunu belirtti.
1114 ve 1513 yıllarında 90 kilometrelik Gölbaşı-Türkoğlu segmentinde kırılmalar yaşandığını ifade eden Gazi Üniversitesi Deprem Araştırma Merkezi Başkanı, 510 yıl aradan sonra bu kırılmanın yeniden meydana geldiğini vurguladı.
Peki, depremlerin aralarında bu kadar uzun zaman olması normal mi? Dahası bu depremlerin ardından Doğu Anadolu Fay Zonu'ndaki hareketliliğin sona erdiğini söylememiz mümkün mü?
Hepimizin merak ettiği, fayın bundan sonraki hareketliliğinin nasıl olacağı…
'FAYIN KIRILMA SÜRESİNİN UZUNLUĞU KABUK YAPISIYLA İLGİLİ'
Prof. Dr. Pampal, bu sorulara da çarpıcı örneklerle cevap verdi. Her bir fayın tekrarlanma süresi olduğunu belirten Gazi Üniversitesi öğretim üyesi, Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu'ndan örnekler verdi.
"İstanbul depremini konuşurken ne diyoruz? '1866'da kırılan fayın 250 yıllık tekrarlanma süresini tamamladık; bu fay kırılmak üzere' diyoruz. Bu fay zonu 250 yılda bir kırılıyor. Ama Kuzey Anadolu Fay Zonu'nun parçası olan Erzincan'da o parça her 50 yılda bir kırılmış. 20'den fazla yıkıcı deprem üretmiş Erzincan civarında… Buna karşın Marmara civarında 250 yıl aralıklarla depreme neden oluyor."
Benzer bir durum Gölbaşı-Türkoğlu segmentinde de mevcut. Öyle ki, Maraş ve çevresinde ortalama olarak 500 yıl aralıkla kırılan fayın güneyinde bulunan Hatay 'da hareketlilik bir hayli fazla.
Prof. Dr. Pampal, bu durumu şu şekilde özetledi:
"Hatay'da MS. 526'da, 1822'de ve 1872'de depremler olmuş. Yani her bir fay parçasının tekrarlanma süresi farklı. Doğu Anadolu Fay Zonu dediğimiz tek bir fay değil; çok parçadan oluşuyor. Her bir parça da bağımsız olarak kırılabiliyor ve belli aralıklarla tekrar edebiliyor. Çünkü bu fayın kırılma süresinin uzunluğu ya da kısalığı kabuk yapısıyla ilgili."
'FAY HATTININ KABUĞU KALINSA DAHA UZUN SÜRE ENERJİ BİRİKTİRİYOR'
Bu noktada, aklımıza şu soru takıldı: Bir fayın dış kabuğu, kırılma sürecinde nasıl bir rol oynuyor?
Bu soruyu, "Kabuğun dış kısmı çok kırılgansa, yüzeye yakın kısmı sık sık kırılıyor. Ama kalınsa magmatikse ve metalürjik kayalardan oluşuyorsa bunlar daha zor kırılıyor" diye yanıtlayan Prof. Dr. Süleyman Pampal, fay içindeki enerji birikiminin bu nedenle yoğunlaştığına değindi ve ekledi:
"Fay hattının kabuğu kalınsa daha uzun süre enerji biriktiriyor. Kırılgan parçalar, kırılgan kesimler ise sık sık kırılıyor; Erzincan'da olduğu gibi… Örneğin kırılgan olmayan kayalardan oluşan bir diğer bölge ise Kuzey Marmara'nın batısı; ortalama olarak 250 yıl aralıklarla kırılıyor. Doğu Anadolu'da da daha sık kırılan ve daha zor kırılan kesimler var. Bu kabuğun yapısıyla ilgili bir konu."