Türkiye, Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremlerle asrın felaketini yaşadı. 11 ilde etkili olan depremler sonucu binlerce kişi hayatını kaybetti.
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Türkiye, Kahramanmaraş merkezli depremlerle asrın felaketini yaşadı. 11 ilde etkili olan depremler sonucu binlerce kişi hayatını kaybetti.
Yaşanan felaket sonrası olası Marmara depremi akıllara geldi. A Haber ekranlarında yayınlanan Memleket Meselesi programında açıklamalarda bulunan Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Öztürk merak edilen soruları cevapladı..
Peki Büyük İstanbul depremi ne kadar yakın? 1509 İstanbul depremi bugüne dair hangi bilgileri veriyor?
İşte Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Öztürk'ün açıklamalarında satırbaşları.
10 BİNDEN FAZLA ARTÇI DEPREM NEYE İŞARET?
Artçılar, kuzeydoğuya ve kuzeye doğru stresin yüklendiğini zorlamaların ve kırılmaların olduğunu söylüyor. Bu çok normal çünkü hem kuzeye hem güney batıya bir hareket olmuştu. Hareketin ana sebebi buydu. Etrafındaki bazı fay segmentleri de zorlanıyor, çatlıyor ve kırılıyor. Ama bir tık daha bunun büyüklerini yani 6'lık, 7'lik depremleri burada beklemek durumundayız.
Bu çok büyük deprem olduğu için oturması biraz zaman alacak. Dolayısıyla buradaki artçılar çok yerdeki gibi 2'lik, 3'lük falan değil 5'lik, 4'lük, 6'lık artçılarda büyük gidiyor. Kırılmaya yakın olan yerler enerjisi zaten dolmuş yerler kırılıp orada yeni depremler üretecekler. Ama daha çok kuzeydoğu doğru gidiyor.
Bu büyükler bizi yanıltmasın daha bu tarafa giden küçükler, büyükler kuzeydoğuya doğru Erzincan'a doğru iyice yüklendiği ve kritik aşamaya gelmiş segmentlerin kırılabileceğini söyleyebiliriz.
7'NİN ÜSTÜNDE BAŞKA DEPREM OLMA RİSKİ VAR MI?
Tabii ki var. İlk deprem olduğunda büyük depreme hazır olun dedik. 9 saat sonra büyük deprem oldu. Yeni depremler olacak. Yedisu fayı o uzun süredir kırılmadı. O kırılacak. En muhtemel kırılması beklenen fay. 7 küsurluk bir haber bekleniyor. Çünkü 250 yıldır kırılmadı.
İSTANBUL'A ETKİSİ VAR MI?
Bu olay biraz fay üzerindeki bir mesele. Hemen bir enerji transfer etmesi mümkün değil. Ama her şeyin birbiriyle bir alakası var. Ama zaten her gün transfer ettiğini bildiğimiz bir stres var. Nereden biliyoruz onu, uyduları izliyoruz. İstanbul'a bakarsak duruyor. Esas güney hareket ediyor.
DEPREM BÖLGESİNDE BULUNAMAMIŞ FAY HATTI OLABİLİR Mİ?
Biz fay hatlarını yüzde kırığını görerek, izleyerek haritalara koyuyoruz. Oradalarda sürekli depremler oluyor onunla örtüşen. Ama her fayı tam çizememiş olabiliriz. Onu doğa çiziyor zamanla. Yani fayların bir kısmı tam olamamış olabilir.
İŞTE İSTANBUL DEPREMİNDE TARİH ARALIĞI
Öztürk, "İstanbul'da bana göre 500-510 yılda bir tekrarlanan 2 segmentin kırılması için o kadar süre geçmesi lazım. Yüklenen strese göre… Beklediğimiz deprem de bu olsa gerek. 1509 depremi bizim en iyi bildiğimiz depremdir. Neden Fatih Sultan Mehmet İstanbul'u almış, daha sonra 2. Bayezid iktidarda iken bu deprem oluyor. Bütün kayıtlar tutulmuş ve bu kayıtlar da elimizde. Bu depremler konusunda üzülerek söylemem gerek ki yabancılar çalışmış." dedi.
1509'DA KAÇ KİŞİ CAN VERDİ, KAÇ BİNA YIKILDI?
Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Öztürk, "İstanbul için şimdi 1509 şu anlamda önemli; bu tarihte deprem olmuş da o büyüklükte bir deprem olmamışsa o deprem olacaktır. Kapımızdaki deprem o olmalı. 1509'da yer yerinden oynamış. Ondan sonra da daha böyle bir deprem olmamış. Küçük ve orta büyük deprem olmuş ancak ama büyük deprem kayıtlara geçmemiş. (Deprem) 1509'da 1070 bina yıkılmış, 109 cami yıkılmış. 5 bin ve 10 bine kadar giden bir ölüm gerçekleşmiş. Yani kent nüfusunun yüzde 10'u öldü denmekte. Böyle bir deprem daha yok bu bölgede." şeklinde konuştu.
"İSTANBUL DEPREMİ EDİRNE'Yİ DE ETKİLEDİ... "
"(İstanbul) Bu büyük deprem 10 Eylül 1509'da kayıtlara geçmiştir." diyen Öztürk, "Bir görüşe göre gece saat 10'da oluyor. Bir diğer görüşe göre sabaha karşı 4'te. O depremde 2 Bayezid'ın kubbesi çöküyor. 2. Bayezid 10 gün Gülhane'de kalıyor. Bayezid, 23 Ekim'de Edirne'ye hareket ediyor. Edirne Osmanlı'nın 2. büyük başkentidir. Zaten 1453'te fethedilince İstanbul başkent oluyor. Uzun süre İstanbul'da inşaata başlanmıyor. Artçılar 1 ay sürüyor." ifadelerine yer verdi.
İSTANBUL'UN YENİDEN İNŞASI NE ZAMAN BAŞLADI?
İstanbul Üniversitesi Cerrahpaşa Jeoloji Müh. Böl. Bşk. Prof. Dr. Hüseyin Öztürk,, "23 Mart-1 Haziran tarihlerinde 3 bin usta ve 60 bin işçi tamirata başlıyor. Edirne'ye giden 2. Bayezid orada da deprem olunca İstanbul'a geri dönüyor. Demek ki o depremler orayı da etkiliyor. Başka kırılma olmuş ve tetiklemelere neden olmuş olabilir. 1509'dan beri kırılan o fay enerji biriktirmekte. Bu fay kaybolmadı. Rakamlara göre de (muhtemel deprem) 2000 tarihine işaret etmekte. Bu böyle gözükmekte. Her hâlükârda İstanbul gerçeğini bilmesi lazım. 5 yıl ve 10 yıl içinde deprem olabilir mi? diye bir cümle kuramayız. Benim beklediğim deprem 1509 depremidir. Deprem kapımızda demek bizim ve yöneticiler için kolay değil. Hızla binaları yenilememiz lazım. Depreme hazır olmalıyız ve kenti daha da büyütmememiz şart." şeklinde konuştu.
"MARMARA DENİZİ DEPREMİ OLACAK"
Diğer illeri de uyaran Öztürk, "Bu deprem Marmara Denizi depremi olacak. Her tarafı etkileyecek afetin yönetimine bu çerçevede bakmak lazım ve buna da hazırlık yapılması gereklidir." dedi.