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14 Mayıs'taki seçime günler şişirme anketlerle umuda kapılan 7'li koalisyonun medya ayağı her gün yeni bir haberle sarsılıyor. Anketlerde Başkan Erdoğan'ın önde olduğunu bilen CHP'li fondaşlar "dip dalga" diyerek 7'li koalisyonun destekçilerini Kılıçdaroğlu'nun kazanacağına ikna etmeye çalışıyor.
CHP YANDAŞI SÖZCÜ TV'DE "DİP DALGA" ŞOKU! VİDEO İZLE
FONDAŞLAR ARANIYOR: KEMAL KILIÇDAROĞLU LEHİNE DİP DALGA VAR MI? SÖZCÜ TV'de yayınlanan Para Politika programında söz alan ekonomist Murat Kubilay , 14 Mayıs üzerinden 1950'deki seçimleri hatırlattı ve Kılıçdaroğlu lehine bir dip dalgası olabileceğini ima etti. Kubilay, canlı yayına konuk olan Siyaset Bilimci Ali Çarkoğlu 'na, "Orada da CHP'yi şaşırtan Demokrat Parti lehine çok ciddi bir dip dalganın olmasıydı. Şu anda belkide Erdoğan'ın hiç kazanma şansı yok, belki Kılıçdaroğlu'na emek vermese bile çoktan kazandıracak güçlü bir dip dalga ihtimali yok mudur?Anketlere yansımamış böyle bir ihtimal yok mudur? " diye sordu.
"BAYRAMI ANADOLU'DA GEÇİRDİM, ÖYLE BİR ŞEY YOK" Bayramı Anadolu'da geçirdiğini ifade ederek yanıt veren Çarkoğlu, gözlemlerine dayanarak Anadolu'da Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu'na yönelik bir dip dalga olmadığını söyledi. Çarkoğlu, Millet İttifakı'nın seçim kampanyasının yeterince dinamik olmadığını da belirtti. "Böyle bir heyecan olmadığı takdirde seçim günü sahada büyük bir fark görmeyebiliriz, buna hazırlıklı olmak lazım" diyen Çarkoğlu, DSP ile AK Parti'yi kıyasladı.
FONDAŞLARIN YÜZLERİ BİR ANDA DÜŞTÜ AK Parti'nin DSP'nin durumunda olmadığını, sahada böyle bir durum görmediğinin altını çizen Çarkoğlu, "Böyle bir çöküş görmüyoruz, AK Parti'nin destek tabanı bir çöküş içerisinde gözükmüyor şu an itibarıyla" dedi. Çarkoğlu'nun o sözleri sonrası sunucu Ebru Baki , İsmail Saymaz ve Murat Kubilay 'ın yüzleri düştü.
"AK PARTİ'NİN DESTEK TABANI BİR ÇÖKÜŞ İÇERİSİNDE GÖZÜKMÜYOR" O anlar kameralara yansırken, Ali Çarkoğlu 'nun konuya ilişkin ifadeleri şöyle:
"Ben böyle bir dip dalgayı 1 Mayıs 1950 yılında Anadolu'da dolaşıyor olsaydık, herhalde görürdük. Ama şu anda öyle bir dip dalgayı nerede dolaşırsanız dolaşın, bayramda Anadolu'daydım öyle bir dip dalganın seçmeni hareketlendirdiğini açıkçası hissetmedi. Kampanya yeterince dinamik değil, insanları sokağa dökemiyor. Bu yeni bir seçim artık internet çağındayız bu iş artık WhatsApp Facebook üzerinden yürüyor. Bu argümanları ben de duyuyorum, böyle bir heyecan olmadığı takdirde seçim günü sahada büyük bir fark görmeyebiliriz, buna hazırlıklı olmak lazım. Bu kadar gizli bir destek var ve biz bunu hiçbir şekilde görmüyoruz, değişik çalışmalarda farklı sonuçlar geliyor fakat AK Parti'nin DSP gibi bir çöküş içerisinde olduğunu gösteren bir sonuç ben görmüyorum. Oysa DSP 2002 yılında yüzde 20'yi aşkın oydan yüzde 2'nin altına düştü. Şu anda benzer bir iktisadi kriz içerisinde yaşıyoruz, bu iktisadi krize o dönemde olmadığı kadar sorun da eklenmiş durumda. Buna rağmen böyle bir çöküş görmüyoruz, AK Parti'nin destek tabanı bir çöküş içerisinde gözükmüyor şu an itibarıyla."
Konuyu köşesine taşıyan Sabah gazetesi yazarı Burhanettin Duran, "İki adayın taraftarlarının seçim günü kendi yanlarında olmasını beklediği dip dalga işte bu kararsız seçmenin tercihiyle oluşacak. Peki kararsız denilen, aslında tercihini anketçilere açıklamayan, bu sessiz seçmenin kararı nasıl oluşacak? Bu belirleyici karar kimlik, ekonomi, güvenlik ve liderlik konuları etrafındaki kanaatlerin bir sentezi ile netleşecek. Seçim akşamından önce tam olarak kestirmemizin mümkün olmayacağı kararsız seçmen tercihi ülkemizin geleceği hakkında rasyonel bir tercih olacak. Anketçilerin ölçemediği oyun, yani tercihini sandıkta gösterecek sessiz seçmenin çoğunluğunun Erdoğan'ı destekleyeceğini tahmin ediyorum." ifadelerini kullandı.
İşte Duran'ın bugünkü yazısı: Seçim kampanyaları son 19 güne girdi. Cumhur İttifakı da Millet İttifakı da 14 Mayıs seçimlerini kazanacağı özgüveniyle propaganda ve mitinglerini sürdürüyor. Anket şirketleri her iki ana ittifakın da "biz kazanacağız" s öylemine uygun anketleri kamuoyu ile paylaşıyor. Bu da seçim yarışını daha iddialı ve gergin hale getiriyor. CHP çevrelerindeki "yeter artık" öfkesi ile "geliyoruz" umudu birbirine karışarak hesap sorma duygularını kabartıyor. Cumhur İttifakı çevresinde ise Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın sahadaki enerjisi ile muhalefetin ülkenin güvenliğini ve bütünlüğünü tehlikeye atacağı kaygısı birleşiyor. Adayların miting sayısının artacağı önümüzdeki üç haftada duygusal temponun daha da yükselmesi beklenmeli. Vaatlerin, siyasi polemik ve suçlamaların tam bir patlama yaşaması kuvvetle olası.
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Kendi seçmenini konsolide eden Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan ve Millet İttifakı adayı Kılıçdaroğlu, kararsız seçmeni ikna etmenin yollarını ve söylemlerini arıyor. Erdoğan eser siyasetine ağırlık vererek her gün neredeyse üç, dört açılış ve temel atma töreninde konuşuyor. Bu mitinglerde icraatlarını anlatmak kalmıyor muhalefetin vizyonsuzluğunu ve ülkenin geleceğinin terör örgütlerine bırakılamayacağını vurguluyor. Kılıçdaroğlu videolarla yurtdışından para getireceğinden bahsederek İmamoğlu ve Yavaş üzerinden sağ seçmene ulaşmaya çabalıyor. Üzerinde ittifak edilen husus, 14 Mayıs seçimlerinin kaderini kararsız seçmenin belirleyeceği. İki adayın taraftarlarının seçim günü kendi yanlarında olmasını beklediği dip dalga işte bu kararsız seçmenin tercihiyle oluşacak. Peki kararsız denilen, aslında tercihini anketçilere açıklamayan, bu sessiz seçmenin kararı nasıl oluşacak? Bu belirleyici karar kimlik, ekonomi, güvenlik ve liderlik konuları etrafındaki kanaatlerin bir sentezi ile netleşecek. Seçim akşamından önce tam olarak kestirmemizin mümkün olmayacağı kararsız seçmen tercihi ülkemizin geleceği hakkında rasyonel bir tercih olacak. Anketçilerin ölçemediği oyun, yani tercihini sandıkta gösterecek sessiz seçmenin çoğunluğunun Erdoğan'ı destekleyeceğini tahmin ediyorum.
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2019 seçimlerinin aksine kimlik konuları ve ülkenin geleceğine dair kaygılar bu seçimlerde etkili olabilir. Kılıçdaroğlu'nun "Kürtlere terörist muamelesi yapılıyor" iddiası ve "Ben Alevi'yim" açıklaması zaten gündemde olan kimlik meselelerinin tartışıldığı ortamı genişletti. Muhtemelen Kılıçdaroğlu bu açıklamaları ile "Teröristlerle birliktesiniz" eleştirilerini karşılamayı ve İyi Partililerin sıklıkla ifade ettiği sağ seçmende kendisinin Alevi kimliğine yönelik çekinceyi ortadan kaldırmayı hedeflemiş olabilir. Ancak daha önce söylense belki Kılıçdaroğlu lehine çalışabilecek bu açıklamalar beklenen etkiyi oluşturmuyor. Hatta Kılıçdaroğlu'nun açtığı kimlik tartışması Cumhur İttifakı için yeni bir fırsat oluşturuyor. Cumhur İttifakı "ayrımcılık" suçlamasını sadece reddetmekle kalmıyor. Hem muhalefeti kimlik konularını kışkırtmak ile suçluyor hem de Kürt ve Alevi kimlik haklarını genişleten tarafın AK Parti iktidarı olduğunu vurguluyor.
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Bence Kılıçdaroğlu, PKK ve FETÖ'nün kendisine verdiği desteğin seçmen nezdindeki olumsuz etkisini küçümsüyor. Bu defa iki terör örgütünün muhalefete açık desteği Cumhur İttifakı'nın eleştirilerinin önüne geçiyor. Ayrımcılık içermeyen güvenlik kaygıları söylemi zannedilenin aksine etkili oluyor. HDP (YSP) desteğini kaybetmemek için terörle mücadelede sessizliğe bürünen ve kayyum uygulamasını kaldıracağını söyleyen Kılıçdaroğlu sessiz seçmenden ciddi bir tepki alabilir. Son sözüm seçim akşamına dair... Sandıklara, seçmenin oyuna sahip çıkmak partilerin ve adayların görevi. Ancak seçim gecesi netleşen milli iradeye iktidar ve muhalefet herkesin teslim olması da o kadar önemli. Ülkemizi istikrarsızlaştıracak her türlü antidemokratik eylem milletimiz tarafından cezalandırılır.
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