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Uluslararası kredi derecelendirme kuruluşu Fitch Ratings , küresel ekonomiye ilişkin büyüme beklentisini bu yıl için yüzde 2,4'ten yüzde 2,5'e çıkarırken, gelecek yıl için yüzde 2,1'den yüzde 1,9'a düşürdü.
Fitch , Küresel Ekonomik Görünüm Raporu'nun eylül sayısını "Çin Endişeleri Artıyor" başlığıyla yayımladı.
Raporda, dünya ekonomisinin bu yıl tahmin edilenden biraz daha hızlı büyümesinin beklendiği ancak Çin'in emlak piyasasında derinleşen çöküşün küresel büyüme beklentilerine gölge düşürdüğü, parasal sıkılaşmanın ise ABD ve Avrupa 'daki talep görünümü üzerinde giderek daha fazla baskı oluşturduğu aktarıldı.
Küresel ekonomik büyüme tahmininin bu yıl için yüzde 2,4'ten yüzde 2,5'e yükseltildiği belirtilen raporda, bunun bu yıl şu ana kadar ABD, Japonya ve Çin hariç gelişmekte olan piyasalardaki "şaşırtıcı direnci" yansıttığı kaydedildi.
Raporda, küresel ekonominin gelecek yıla ilişkin büyüme beklentisinin yüzde 2,1'den yüzde 1,9'a düşürüldüğü, dünya ekonomisinin 2025'te ise yüzde 2,8 büyümesinin beklendiği bildirildi.
ÇİN'İN BÜYÜME TAHMİNLERİ DÜŞÜRÜLDÜ Çin'in konut piyasasında önceden beklenen istikrarın gerçekleşmediğine işaret edilen raporda, yeni satışların bu yıl 5'te 1 oranında düşebileceği aktarıldı.
Raporda, konut piyasasının ülke Gayrisafi Yurtiçi Hasıla'sının (GSYH) yüzde 12'sini oluşturduğu belirtilerek, daha geniş ekonomi üzerinde güçlü çarpan etkilerine sahip olduğu vurgulandı.
Çin'de politika gevşemesinin şu ana kadar yetersiz kaldığı aktarılan raporda, ihracat talebinin düştüğü kaydedildi.
Raporda, Çin ekonomisinin ekonomik büyüme tahmininin bu yıl için yüzde 5,6'dan yüzde 4,8'e ve gelecek yıl için yüzde 4,8'den yüzde 4,6'ya düşürüldüğü bildirildi.
ABD'DE RESESYON HALA OLASI ABD Merkez Bankası'nın (Fed) sıkılaşma politikasına rağmen ülkedeki hızlı tüketim artışının bu yıl da devam ettiğine işaret edilen raporda, bunun istihdam ve ücretlerin hızla artmasından kaynaklandığı aktarıldı. Raporda, iş gücü talebinin son aylarda yavaşladığı ve iş gücü piyasası soğumaya devam ettikçe ücret enflasyonunun daha da düşeceği kaydedildi.
İş gücü gelirindeki yavaşlama ihtimalinin yanı sıra kredi ivmesinin negatife dönmesiyle kredi koşullarındaki sıkılaşmanın da belirginleştiği belirtilen raporda, kar artışındaki düşüşün aynı zamanda yatırım beklentilerinin zayıfladığının sinyalini verdiği bildirildi.
Raporda, "Hala hafif bir resesyon bekliyoruz, ancak şimdi bunun 2024'ün ilk yarısında gerçekleşeceğini tahmin ediyoruz." ifadesi kullanıldı.
ABD ekonomisinin bu yıla ilişkin büyüme tahmininin yüzde 1,2'den yüzde 2'ye yükseltildiği belirtilen raporda, ülke ekonomisinin gelecek seneye ilişkin büyüme beklentisinin ise yüzde 0,5'ten yüzde 0,3'e düşürüldüğü kaydedildi.
AVRO BÖLGESİ'NİN BÜYÜME TAHMİNLERİ DE AŞAĞI YÖNLÜ REVİZE EDİLDİ Avro Bölgesi'ndeki toparlanmanın ise enerji şokunun ardından durduğu, şimdi dünya ticaretindeki ve Çin'deki yavaşlamadan kaynaklanan yeni dış zorluklarla karşı karşıya olunduğu belirtilen raporda, Avrupa Merkez Bankası'nın (ECB) sıkılaşmasının kredi büyümesi üzerinde baskı yarattığı aktarıldı.
Raporda, Avro Bölgesi ekonomisinin bu yıla ilişkin büyüme beklentisinin yüzde 0,8'den yüzde 0,6'ya ve gelecek yıl için yüzde 1,4'ten yüzde 1,1'e düşürüldüğü bildirildi.
TÜRKİYE'NİN BU YILA İLİŞKİN BÜYÜME TAHMİNİ YÜKSELTİLDİ Türkiye ekonomisine ilişkin değerlendirmelere de yer verilen raporda, Hazine ve Maliye Bakanı Mehmet Şimşek ve Türkiye Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası Başkanı Hafize Gaye Erkan'ın da aralarında bulunduğu yeni ekonomi yönetiminin atanmasından bu yana para politikasının daha ortodoks bir hal aldığı aktarıldı.
Raporda, Türkiye ekonomisinin bu yılın 2'nci çeyreğindeki beklenenden daha güçlü büyümesinin ardından bu yıla ilişkin ekonomik büyüme tahmininin yüzde 2,5'ten yüzde 4,3'e yükseltildiği kaydedildi.
Tüketim, yatırım ve hükümet harcamalarındaki güçlü artışın ekonominin çeyreklik bazda yüzde 3,5 büyümesine yardımcı olduğu belirtilen raporda, bunun Fitch 'in yüzde 0,6 olan önceki tahmininin çok üzerinde olduğu belirtildi.
Raporda, Türkiye ekonomisinin 2024'te yüzde 3 ve 2025'te ise yüzde 3,4 büyümesinin beklendiği bildirildi.
Perakende satışların gücünü koruması ve yurt içi kredi büyümesindeki artış nedeniyle ekonominin bu yılın 2'nci yarısında ivmesini sürdürmesinin beklendiği belirtilen raporda, ayrıca deprem sonrası yeniden inşa projelerine yönelik hükümet harcamalarının da ekonomiyi desteklemeye devam etmesinin beklendiği aktarıldı.