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2018 seçim lerinin üzerinden tam 2 yıl geçti. Olağanüstü bir gelişme olmazsa Haziran 2023'te Milletvekillerini ve Cumhurbaşkanı nı seçmek üzere yeniden sandık başına gideceğiz. Peki bu 2 yıllık süre içerisinde Hükümet nasıl bir sınav verdi? İstanbul ve Ankara'nın CHP 'ye kaptırılması genel seçim sonuçlarını nasıl etkileyecek? Geniş bir kamuoyu araştırması yapan GENAR'ın başkanı İhsan Aktaş "Bu pazar seçim olsa Türkiye hangi partiye oy verecek" sorusuna cevap aradı. İşte GENAR'ın son siyasi kamuoyu araştırmasından çarpıcı sonuçlar…
AK PARTİ OYUNU 2 PUAN ARTTIRDI -Herkesin merak ettiği soru ile başlayalım. AK Parti'nin oy oranında 2018 yılından bu yana düşüş var mı?
Seçim lerden bu yana bu dönemde Cumhur ittifakı en yüksek seviyeye ulaştı. Son genel seçimlerde Cumhur ittifakının oy oranı yüzde 53.7 idi. Bugün yaptığımız araştırmada yüzde 55.2 sonucuna ulaştık. Bu da gösteriyor ki iki yıl içerisinde Cumhur İttifakı oy kaybetmediği gibi, oy oranını da 2 puan arttırmış görünüyor.
CHP YEREL RÜZGARI KAYBETTİ -2019 yerel seçimlerinde CHP'nin oy oranı neden günümüzde genel seçim kamuoyu araştırmalarına yansımıyor?
CHP'nin Ankara, İstanbul ve Antalya gibi büyük şehirleri alması genel siyasete de yansıyacağı bekleniyordu. Ancak seçimlerden hemen sonra yaptığımız araştırmada yereldeki bu sıçramanın genel seçimlere yeteri kadar etki etmeyeceği dikkatimizi çekmişti. Bunun sebebini şöyle açıklayabiliriz. AK Parti yerele yönetimlerde hizmet noktasında önemli aşamalar kaydetmişti. Bunun üzerine koyarak dikkat çekici bir belediyecilik hizmeti ortaya koymak çok zordu. CHP'li İstanbul ve Ankara belediyesi şu ana kadar bu zoru başaramadı. Bir de şunun altını çizmekte fayda var. CHP'nin yereldeki oy oranı her zaman genel seçimlerin üzerindedir.
BU PAZAR SEÇİM OLSA CUMHUR İTTİFAKI YÜZDE 55.2
-Bu Pazar seçim olsa Cumhur ittifakı ipi tek başına göğüsleyebilir diyebilir miyiz?
Seçim leri psikolojisi her dönemde farklı olabiliyor. Ancak bu Pazar günü seçim Cumhur İttifakı'nın oy oranın yüzde 55.2 olduğunu, meclis çoğunluğunu elde edebileceğini ve ilk turda Cumhurbaşkanı seçebileceğini söyleyebiliriz. Diğer partilerden de oy alacağını da düşünerek Cumhurbaşkanı'nın oy oranının biraz daha yüksek olduğunu bekleyebiliriz.
İMAMOĞLU'NUN SİYASET TARZI BEĞENİLMEDİ
-2019 seçimlerinin parlayan yıldızı Ekrem İmamoğlu'ydu. Sizce beklenen performansı gösterebildi mi?
Kent meselelerine duyarlı bir insan olarak benim gözlemim şu. Geriye bıraktığımız bir yıl siyasi polemiklerle geçti. Hizmetler, yatırımlar ve sosyal meseleler gündem olmadı. Ekrem İmamoğlu 'nun siyaset ve hizmet anlayışı böyle gidecek gibi görünüyor. İstanbullular da bunun farkında. İstanbullunun gündemi ve beklentisi ile İmamoğlu'nun beklentisi ve gündemi çok farklı.
HÜKÜMET PANDEMİ SÜRECİNDE BAŞARILI
-Oy oranlarındaki artışta pandemi sürecindeki başarının payı var mı?
Bütün dünyayı temelinden sarsan ve çaresiz bırakan pandemi sürecinin iyi yönetilmesi vatandaş düzeyinde olumlu etki yarattı. Panedemi sürecinin tamamına bakıldığında eş zamanlı olarak çeşitli bakanlıkların almış olduğu önemli tedbirler var. Burada Sağlık Bakanlığı nda titiz, dikkatli çalışması çok dikkat çekiciydi ve toplumda kısa sürede karşılık buldu. Bunun yanısıra Hazine ve Maliye Bakanlığı 'nın KOBİ'lere yaptığı mali destek, 4 milyon haneye yapılan yapılan doğrudan yardım ile ekonomik ve sosyal açıdan toplumun rahatlatılmasına sebep oldu. Bunun yanısıra başta İçişleri Bakanlığı olmak üzere her bakanlık bu süreçte iyi sınav verdi. Bunun adı "İyi Yönetim"dir. Pandemi süreci şunu gösterdi; hizmet, yatırım ve kriz yönetiminde AK Parti üstünlüğünü ortaya koyuyor. Buna karşılık siyasi polemik zeminine dönülünce CHP daha etkili oluyor.
CHP 'NİN YÜZDE 63'Ü BAŞARILI BULUYOR -Muhalefet partilerine oy veren seçmen Pandemi sürecinde hükümetin performansını nasıl buluyor?
Türkiye kamuoyu hükümeti ve Sağlık Bakanlığı nı çok başarılı buluyor. Türkiye'nin yüzde 70'i Sağlık Bakanlığı'nın toplum ile paylaştığı verilerin güvenli olduğuna inanıyor. Yüzde 75'e Sağlık Bakanlığı'nı başarılı bulmaktadır. CHP seçmeninin yüzde 63'ü Sağlık Bakanı Fahrettin Koca'yı başarılı bulmaktadır.
ERDOĞAN AÇIK ARA EN BEĞENİLEN LİDER
-Peki Türkiye'de en beğenilen siyasetçi kim?
10 siyasi lider arasında en beğenilen lider olarak Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın oranı yüzde 36.2. İkinci ismin beğeni oranı ise sadece yüzde 9. Önceden ikinci isimin yüzde 17'lere ulaştığını görüyorduk. Burada ikinci isim arasındaki fark 4 katına kadar çıkmış. Bu da Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan'ın kamuoyu nezdindeki gücünü ve etkisini ortaya koyuyor.
CHP'DE HAYAL KIRIKLIĞI HAKİM
-CHP'nin oy oranlarında bir sıçrama gözlemliyor musunuz?
Son genel seçim ler oy oranı yüzde 22.6 idi. Bugün ise yaptığımız çalışmada yüzde 23.5 sonucuna ulaştık. Ancak kendi beklentileri oylarının yüzde 30 sınırına dayanmış olduğu yönündeydi. Geriye bıraktığımız 10 yılda CHP 'nin sosyolojik bir sıkışmışlığı yaşandığı söyleniyordu. Ancak görünen o ki bu sıkışmışlık henüz aşılabilmiş değil.
CHP SİYASİ POLEMİKTEN ARTIK BESLENEMİYOR
-CHP'nin son dönemde içinde bulunduğu agresif tutum, darbe imaları, sert siyaset bu sıkışmışlıktan kaynaklanıyor olabilir mi?
Yerel seçim lerden elde ettikleri rüzgarın CHP 'yi iktidara taşıyacağı bekleniyordu. Ancak karşı karşıya kalınan küresel meselelerde Hükümetin ortaya koyduğu başarı, Cumhur İttifakı'na olan desteği arttırmıştır. Burada CHP'nin siyaset tarzını da gözden geçirmesi gerekiyor. İyi işler yapıldığında bile siyasi polemik yaparsanız bir kıymeti olmuyor.
YENİ PARTİLER HEYECAN OLUŞTURMADI
-Deva Partisi ve Gelecek Partisi neden bir heyecan oluşturamadı?
Yeni kurulan partilerin bugünkü tabloda henüz bir varlık gösterememiş olduğu anlaşılıyor. Partiler kurulmadan önce belli oranda bir tartışma vardı. Ancak parti ler kurulduktan sonra kadrolar ortaya çıkınca Türk siyasetine bir katkısının olmayacağı anlaşıldı. Zaten araştırma sonuçlarına baktığımızda da bugün için kamuyoyunun Deva ve Gelecek Partisi'ni dikkate almadığı anlaşılıyor. Zaten önümüzdeki seçim lerin AK Parti ile CHP arasında geçeceğini düşünürsek, bu partilerden kopmuş üçüncü partilere seçmenin yöneleceğini düşünmüyorum.
İYİ PARTİ KALICI OLMAK İSTİYORSA BAĞIMSIZ OLMALI
-AK Parti ile aynı tabandan oy almaya çalışan küçüklü büyüklü partiler var. Bunların Cumhur ve Millet ittifakı dışında üçüncü bir ittifak kuracağı söyleniyor. Bu ittifaka şans veriyor musunuz?
Tartışılan bu üçüncü ittifak ile ilgili farklı bir kanaatim var. Yeni kurulan partiler ve Saadet Partisi'nden bağımsız olarak İyi Parti'nin kalıcı bir parti olması için başka bir tutuma ihtiyacı var. Milliyetçi gelenekten gelen bir partinin HDP'nin gölgesinde kalması İyi Parti seçmenini yaralamaktadır. İyi Parti'nin bağımsız bir siyasi parti kimliği oluşturabilmesi için ittifaklardan bağımsız bir pozisyon almasının faydalı olacağını düşünüyorum. Meral Akşener Cumhurbaşkanlığına bizzat aday olarak önemli bir adım atmış ve partisi için faydalı olmuştu. İSA TATLICAN/SABAH